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Things are looking up
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Sex God
Quote by deancannock
okay...you believe a market research company....I'll believe the Governments own figures !! As iF the government itself is going to massage the figures so they look worse than they actually are !!
I do not think they are disagreeing with the government figures, just saying that things are possibly not as bad as one might think from the reports we read in papers etc. We made some good progress in the first part of the year as I linked to.
I do not believe it all to be doom and gloom as you would have us believe.
I know of industry's who are currently struggling to keep up with there work load.
The UK has sunk back into a recession, if the official
first estimate of economic growth in the first quarter is
to be believed. However, the underlying strength of the
economy is probably much more robust than these
data suggest. The danger is that these gloomy data
deliver a fatal blow to the fragile revival of consumer
and business confidence seen so far this year,
harming the recovery and even sending the country
back into a ‘real’ recession
It would appear that quite a few economists are sceptical of the figures released by the ONS yesterday. Here's one example.
"The initial reaction to these figures must be one of disbelief," said Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club.
"The divergence between the stronger survey data and dire official output estimates is virtually unprecedented and must raise significant question marks over the quality of the data. The construction figures are an obvious source of bewilderment, but the services data also looks highly questionable given what we already knew about the early part of the quarter. Certainly the impression that we have from talking to businesses is the UK economy is not in recession."
These figures will be subject to a further two revisions, so maybe those gloating over the double dip recession may just be being a little premature.
"The initial reaction to these figures must be one of disbelief," said Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club.
"The divergence between the stronger survey data and dire official output estimates is virtually unprecedented and must raise significant question marks over the quality of the data. The construction figures are an obvious source of bewilderment, but the services data also looks highly questionable given what we already knew about the early part of the quarter. Certainly the impression that we have from talking to businesses is the UK economy is not in recession."
These figures will be subject to a further two revisions, so maybe those gloating over the double dip recession may just be being a little premature.
Sex God
Quote by Bluefish2009
Were all doomed
Chris Williamson, Markit:
The underlying strength of the economy is probably much more robust than these data suggest. The danger is that these gloomy data deliver a fatal blow to the fragile revival of consumer and business confidence seen so far this year, harming the recovery and even sending the country back into a real recession.
Not for the first time, the official data and survey data are sending conflicting signals...The disappointing GDP data also contrast with other official data, which indicate that retail sales grew 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year and the labour market to have shown some signs of improvement.
The worry for me is the doom and gloom brigade will in the end win :sad:
Who pays any attention to any of this rubbish on a personal level? Rough made up guide
Get paid (all income sources) 1000
bills come to 700
300 left to spend
The bottom figure is what decides my level of so called doom or gloom. The main alterations to that bottom figure over the last year or so have been primarily the gas and electric company's and secondarily the gov by skimming off the the top of tax credits. I am probably about 50 quid a month worse off between those two than I was a year ago. I dont work any extra so that's 50 quid that does not get spent somewhere else. I can still manage perfectly well on what I have so no need to.
Point being I never listen to a news forecast or read an article and go "Shit better not buy that new toaster on Tuesday". Figures in the bank, that gives all the information I need and that goes for personal and my self employed work.
Sex God
Quote by tweeky
Were all doomed
Chris Williamson, Markit:
The underlying strength of the economy is probably much more robust than these data suggest. The danger is that these gloomy data deliver a fatal blow to the fragile revival of consumer and business confidence seen so far this year, harming the recovery and even sending the country back into a real recession.
Not for the first time, the official data and survey data are sending conflicting signals...The disappointing GDP data also contrast with other official data, which indicate that retail sales grew 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year and the labour market to have shown some signs of improvement.
The worry for me is the doom and gloom brigade will in the end win :sad:
Who pays any attention to any of this rubbish on a personal level? Rough made up guide
Get paid (all income sources) 1000
bills come to 700
300 left to spend
The bottom figure is what decides my level of so called doom or gloom. The main alterations to that bottom figure over the last year or so have been primarily the gas and electric company's and secondarily the gov by skimming off the the top of tax credits. I am probably about 50 quid a month worse off between those two than I was a year ago. I dont work any extra so that's 50 quid that does not get spent somewhere else. I can still manage perfectly well on what I have so no need to.
Point being I never listen to a news forecast or read an article and go "Shit better not buy that new toaster on Tuesday". Figures in the bank, that gives all the information I need and that goes for personal and my self employed work.
I agree, but
Consumer confidence is an economic indicator which measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. How confident people feel about stability of their incomes determines their spending activity and therefore serves as one of the key indicators for the overall shape of the economy. In essence, if the economy expands causing consumer confidence to be higher, consumers will be making more purchases. On the other hand, if the economy contracts or is in bad shape, confidence is lower, and consumers tend to save more and spend less. A month-to-month diminishing trend in consumer confidence suggests that in the current state of the economy most consumers have a negative outlook on their ability to find and retain good jobs.
