This is the stage that many are dreading, the cobblestone sections of the Franco Belgian border, where more than dreams can get shattered.
Most of the principals will simply hope to negotiate this stage safely and without losing time to their main rivals. As usual there will be someone with different ideas who'll wish to upset the plans. There will be the usual breakaway, but expect the field to become fragmented as the race gets on the cobbles. Don't expect the usual team train to chase down the leader. Very often a rider can skip away by 30 or 40 seconds and hold out.
When it comes to racing on these cobblestones there are a few specialists, none more so than Fabian Cancellara, and he'll go off at around 3/1 favorite to win, and I think that's fair given his record. It is worth remembering that he was outsprinted by John Dagenkolb in the Paris -Roubaix classic, (2nd and 3rd) Nikki Terpstra had slipped away from the bunch and duly won. Cancellara's strength is his ability to power clear on these surfaces, and if he gets away there are few able to catch him. Peter Sagan has also proven adept at riding over the cobbles.
The betting has it about right. If you fancy any of the favorites then don't let me put you off.
The weather forecast is wet and windy weather moving in over the next 24 hours. If the cobblestones get wet then expect crashes galore. Punctures too are the norm, further complicated by the fact that team cars can't get through the peleton.
More to follow -
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Tour de France .. stage 5 to stage 10 previews
As indicated above, this promises to be a thriller.
I'm not one for plunging on favorites, when it comes to risking my shilling, but I do think Cancellara's the most likely winner. I also think his fellow favorites are most likely to get closest to him, however, this isn't any ordinary road race, and anything could happen. I like to play around with some bigger odds on the exchanges, and hopefully lay them back as things progress.
Riders likely to be involved include Keukeliere from orica green edge, on offer around 80/1. Geraint Thomas, also 80/1, if he's excused from shepherding Froome, is another who could get involved.
A personal fancy of mine, as the joker in the pack is Dries Devenyns, well capable of getting involved when it gets tough, and worth my bob each way at 200/1.
Then the evergreen Jens Voigt is highly likely to want to lead at some point, and also trading at around 200/1.
Grab a cold beer and sit back and enjoy.... if I wasn't already retired I'd take a sicky for this one.
I'm not one for plunging on favorites, when it comes to risking my shilling, but I do think Cancellara's the most likely winner. I also think his fellow favorites are most likely to get closest to him, however, this isn't any ordinary road race, and anything could happen. I like to play around with some bigger odds on the exchanges, and hopefully lay them back as things progress.
Riders likely to be involved include Keukeliere from orica green edge, on offer around 80/1. Geraint Thomas, also 80/1, if he's excused from shepherding Froome, is another who could get involved.
A personal fancy of mine, as the joker in the pack is Dries Devenyns, well capable of getting involved when it gets tough, and worth my bob each way at 200/1.
Then the evergreen Jens Voigt is highly likely to want to lead at some point, and also trading at around 200/1.
Grab a cold beer and sit back and enjoy.... if I wasn't already retired I'd take a sicky for this one.
Well stage 5 certainly lived up to it's billing, and it's still not clear how many riders are carrying injuries into stage 6.
Stage 6 is another stage set up for the sprinters, and therefore Marcel Kittel will start as the hot favorite and most likely winner. However, not only did Kittel take a tumble, though reportedly he's o.k., but his strong leadout man John Dagenkolb suffered a nasty fall and is carrying an injury.
Demare, Kristoff and Greipel all took a fall in stage 5, and it's impossible to know how they'll be feeling.
Stage 6 is a long stage, with potentially wet roads once again. It will surprise no one if Kittel wins yet again, and I expect him to do so, but I'd rather have an interest on one of the sprinters who had a less unpleasant day on the cobbles. Bryan Coquard has been knocking on the door at each stage and may reward a small each way bet this time (25/1). Davide Cimolai,(150/1) not a regular winner, just might get in the shake up if there are weaknesses amongst the favorites.
Stage 6 is another stage set up for the sprinters, and therefore Marcel Kittel will start as the hot favorite and most likely winner. However, not only did Kittel take a tumble, though reportedly he's o.k., but his strong leadout man John Dagenkolb suffered a nasty fall and is carrying an injury.
Demare, Kristoff and Greipel all took a fall in stage 5, and it's impossible to know how they'll be feeling.
Stage 6 is a long stage, with potentially wet roads once again. It will surprise no one if Kittel wins yet again, and I expect him to do so, but I'd rather have an interest on one of the sprinters who had a less unpleasant day on the cobbles. Bryan Coquard has been knocking on the door at each stage and may reward a small each way bet this time (25/1). Davide Cimolai,(150/1) not a regular winner, just might get in the shake up if there are weaknesses amongst the favorites.
Quote by skinny
Well stage 5 certainly lived up to it's billing, and it's still not clear how many riders are carrying injuries into stage 6.
Stage 6 is another stage set up for the sprinters, and therefore Marcel Kittel will start as the hot favorite and most likely winner. However, not only did Kittel take a tumble, though reportedly he's o.k., but his strong leadout man John Dagenkolb suffered a nasty fall and is carrying an injury.
Demare, Kristoff and Greipel all took a fall in stage 5, and it's impossible to know how they'll be feeling.
Stage 6 is a long stage, with potentially wet roads once again. It will surprise no one if Kittel wins yet again, and I expect him to do so, but I'd rather have an interest on one of the sprinters who had a less unpleasant day on the cobbles. Bryan Coquard has been knocking on the door at each stage and may reward a small each way bet this time (25/1). Davide Cimolai,(150/1) not a regular winner, just might get in the shake up if there are weaknesses amongst the favorites.
Just in case you've missed the coverage: Chris Froome has retired from the race injured, following successive crashes. Vincenzo Nibali, with a strong team in support, has a healthy lead over his main rivals.
(For the uninitiated) The widening time gaps will change the way stages are raced. The morning breakaway group will be allowed more leeway, and more riders. The race leader won't always feel a need to chase, making it more difficult for individual teams to catch the leaders, therefore increasing the chances of a breakaway rider taking a stage win.
Stage 6 saw Greipel take an overdue win, albeit with Kittel limping home on a flat tyre. What the stage did show is that none of these teams came through the previous day unscathed. The peleton fragmented, and so did teams as the day went on, and when the pace got fast there were lots of guys who just didn't have it left in them.
Stage 7 is a long stage with a fairly flat finish but a rather lumpy final 20km. Peter Sagan will start favorite, and his team have, in the past, claimed such a stage as their own. Sagan can get over these late climbs and still deliver a sprint finish. If Simon Gerrans was known to be fit he would be my favorite. Kwiatkowski is showing great form and I believe Cancellara rested today to wait for this stage. Again there are numerous options, not least the breakaway specialists. I think any team with top ten ambitions would like an easier day, which probably means someone will prove me wrong. I would have opted for Tony Martin, but I suspect he'll now be looking after Kwiatkowski. Perhaps Terpstra or Bakelants will be allowed to go up the road. Don't overlook Sep Vanmarke, who would almost certainly have won stage 5 but for a late puncture. Belkin need all the results they can get, and Lars Boom and Vanmarke might go in tandem once again.
Just for a little extra interest I'll play a small stake on Keukeliere once again. He's showing top form and still managing to fly under the radar. I'll also have a quid on Cancellara to get over the last hill with no one on his wheel, and then he'll take some catching.
Stage 7 is a long stage with a fairly flat finish but a rather lumpy final 20km. Peter Sagan will start favorite, and his team have, in the past, claimed such a stage as their own. Sagan can get over these late climbs and still deliver a sprint finish. If Simon Gerrans was known to be fit he would be my favorite. Kwiatkowski is showing great form and I believe Cancellara rested today to wait for this stage. Again there are numerous options, not least the breakaway specialists. I think any team with top ten ambitions would like an easier day, which probably means someone will prove me wrong. I would have opted for Tony Martin, but I suspect he'll now be looking after Kwiatkowski. Perhaps Terpstra or Bakelants will be allowed to go up the road. Don't overlook Sep Vanmarke, who would almost certainly have won stage 5 but for a late puncture. Belkin need all the results they can get, and Lars Boom and Vanmarke might go in tandem once again.
Just for a little extra interest I'll play a small stake on Keukeliere once again. He's showing top form and still managing to fly under the radar. I'll also have a quid on Cancellara to get over the last hill with no one on his wheel, and then he'll take some catching.
Stage 8 is the first visit to the mountains. The climbing doesn't begin until late in the stage, a short stage, but the hills are quite serious in parts. Nibali's team will no doubt hope to get someone in the breakaway and let someone else do the chasing. It's quite possible that a breakaway would be allowed to go all the way, although I think tomorrow's stage looks more likely from that perspective. Today is very much for watching, and it will reveal lots about who is capable of winning over the days still to come.
Contador needs to make up some time, and I don't think he'll be letting anyone have their own way when the climbing starts.
Nibali doesn't need to win this, but it's not in his nature to just sit back and watch the scrap, if he's in good form he'll want to show some of it.
Two riders, both recovering from serious injuries and with no claims on the overall are Chris Horner and "Purito" Rodriguez. Both riders are amongst the best climbers in the peleton and, if fit enough, are well capable of fighting for a win on this stage.
I quite like Blel Kadri as an outsider who might get in the early break, together with Westra from Astana.
If I have to pick one against the field then I'd go with Contador who seems to be in good form and has managed, unlike so many, to stay upright so far.
Contador needs to make up some time, and I don't think he'll be letting anyone have their own way when the climbing starts.
Nibali doesn't need to win this, but it's not in his nature to just sit back and watch the scrap, if he's in good form he'll want to show some of it.
Two riders, both recovering from serious injuries and with no claims on the overall are Chris Horner and "Purito" Rodriguez. Both riders are amongst the best climbers in the peleton and, if fit enough, are well capable of fighting for a win on this stage.
I quite like Blel Kadri as an outsider who might get in the early break, together with Westra from Astana.
If I have to pick one against the field then I'd go with Contador who seems to be in good form and has managed, unlike so many, to stay upright so far.
When I first saw the profile for this stage I thought it had "breakaway" and "Tommy Voekler" written all over it. Voekler will undoubtedly attempt to get in the breakaway. However, gone are the days when he was off the radar, and a best price of 20/1 on the exchanges isn't tempting for me. Tommy's an excellent rider, and a real fighter for the win, but by his own admission he's not the best climber and claims to never have won in a sprint.(the final 20km are flat) So with at least 40 other guys trying to get into the breakaway group it's going to be tough to call the winner.
There's a general belief that the main contenders will save their energy for monday's big day in the mountains, thereby fuelling extra ambition for riders to get into the break.
I thought this stage was suited to both Terpstra and Chavanel, both of whom have probably spent their energy today. Jan Bakelandts often targets a stage like this, but again the odds on offer aren't generous.
My shilling's going on Geraint Thomas, in the hope that the race pans out sufficiently well for him to be let off the leash by Team Sky, and on offer at around 66/1, likely to be bigger on the exchanges.
There's a general belief that the main contenders will save their energy for monday's big day in the mountains, thereby fuelling extra ambition for riders to get into the break.
I thought this stage was suited to both Terpstra and Chavanel, both of whom have probably spent their energy today. Jan Bakelandts often targets a stage like this, but again the odds on offer aren't generous.
My shilling's going on Geraint Thomas, in the hope that the race pans out sufficiently well for him to be let off the leash by Team Sky, and on offer at around 66/1, likely to be bigger on the exchanges.
Well done to Tony Martin, winner of stage 9, yet again proving himself to be a uniquely talented rider.
On to the first big day in the mountains. I wouldn't say a breakaway can't win this stage, but there are only a handful of riders capable of riding at speed up these mountains, and sufficiently off the leaders time to be allowed some leeway.
When Contador ups the pace most riders will fall behind, and a breakaway is unlikely to have sufficient lead to hold out.
The climbs are very steep in parts, and are perfectly suited to Rodriguez and Chris Horner. Rodriguez has his sights set on the polka dot jersey, which makes him an ideal candidate for the breakaway. He won't be at big odds, and even riding with the race leaders would be one of the favorites for the stage win.
Chris Horner has yet to prove he is in good enough form, but at huge odds I'm prepared to take a chance on him. He could be in the breakaway or ride with the favorites and still finish in front at his best.
We saw, just a couple of days ago, that Blel Kadri is in excellent form, and climbing well enough to stay clear if he's given a chance to do so.
It's Bastille Day, and the French are well represented, with Pinot particularly good on these types of finish, and Christophe Riblon capable of tapping out a good pace up the climbs. Pierre Rolland and young Bardet will want to make themselves visible too.
All of this might prove to be academic when Contador makes his move. He's the best climber in the race and I expect him to want to prove it. He needs to gain time on Nibali, and I don't expect him to leave it late in the day to put the hurt on. I really think Contador will win, although best odds of 7/4 don't really interest me. I think if anyone beats Contador, on stage 10, that it's likely because they've been allowed to.
Leopold Konig is another rider who might get involved at a big price.
On to the first big day in the mountains. I wouldn't say a breakaway can't win this stage, but there are only a handful of riders capable of riding at speed up these mountains, and sufficiently off the leaders time to be allowed some leeway.
When Contador ups the pace most riders will fall behind, and a breakaway is unlikely to have sufficient lead to hold out.
The climbs are very steep in parts, and are perfectly suited to Rodriguez and Chris Horner. Rodriguez has his sights set on the polka dot jersey, which makes him an ideal candidate for the breakaway. He won't be at big odds, and even riding with the race leaders would be one of the favorites for the stage win.
Chris Horner has yet to prove he is in good enough form, but at huge odds I'm prepared to take a chance on him. He could be in the breakaway or ride with the favorites and still finish in front at his best.
We saw, just a couple of days ago, that Blel Kadri is in excellent form, and climbing well enough to stay clear if he's given a chance to do so.
It's Bastille Day, and the French are well represented, with Pinot particularly good on these types of finish, and Christophe Riblon capable of tapping out a good pace up the climbs. Pierre Rolland and young Bardet will want to make themselves visible too.
All of this might prove to be academic when Contador makes his move. He's the best climber in the race and I expect him to want to prove it. He needs to gain time on Nibali, and I don't expect him to leave it late in the day to put the hurt on. I really think Contador will win, although best odds of 7/4 don't really interest me. I think if anyone beats Contador, on stage 10, that it's likely because they've been allowed to.
Leopold Konig is another rider who might get involved at a big price.
Well stage 10 was certainly exciting and full of incident. The biggest surprise was the exit of race favorite Alberto Contador, who crashed on a decent early in the stage, and retired from the race with a fractured tibia. The whole structure of the stage changed, and Vincenzo Nibali, left unchallenged, was able to surround himself with his whole team and take control of the race. Nibali rode on to take the stage win and virtually assured an unsurmountable lead in the race overall. Only misfortune could prevent him from winning now, although there is still almost two weeks of racing to negotiate.
Tuesday, after ten days racing, is the riders' first rest day.
More thrills to come on wednesday.
Tuesday, after ten days racing, is the riders' first rest day.
More thrills to come on wednesday.
