Stage 11 ... almost anyone's guess as to who will win this, and I'm never trying to encourage anyone to gamble, but if you just like the contest, and feel free to chip in with your thoughts, or if you actually fancy having a small flutter on the event's stages, then I hope you enjoy reading my take on the event.
Peter Sagan will start favorite for this stage, which should suit a breakaway, and he is not shy about joining a breakaway in his hunt for that stage win. He is a fair choice for the win.
Jan Bakelandts is another who will get into the break one of these days, and can win a stage.
There are just too many riders to mention who might target the win on this stage. My personal favorite is Sylvain Chavenel, tho' I may not be tempted by the odds. Matteo Trentin has delivered recently, for Omega Pharma, and they may well have designs on delivering him again, right at the finish.
I have no real advice on this stage, but I am watching Tinkoff's boys, particularly Rodgers and Roche, now that they are free of having to look after Contador.
Albasini and Gerrans are obvious candidates to win this if it comes to a reduced bunch sprint, and both seem to be in good form now. I remain confidant that Geraint Thomas will be allowed freedom to ride for a stage win one of these days, and he is more than capable of delivering.
Yuri Trofimov, from Katusha, has also targeted a stage win .... it may be today.
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Tour de France, stage 11 and onwards
Just like stage 11, this stage will be targeted by many of the teams. A very similar profile, with potentially easier climbs on the whole. The sprinters, some of them, got very close on stage 11, and more of them can expect to be challenging this time. A late breakaway might stand a better chance of making it than the early break. It'll be very hot and a furious pace from the start will take it's toll.
Again I think any one of many riders could take the win and I'll stay with Chavanel as my no.1 pick.
Again I think any one of many riders could take the win and I'll stay with Chavanel as my no.1 pick.
After yet another day of mayhem the tour heads back to the mountains. The first of three climbs comes early in the day and, although not very difficult, will surely set up the early attacks and attempts to get into the breakaway. The next climb is almost 100 km. further on. The second and third climb are both long and difficult. Both Rodriguez and Voekler are likely to attempt to get in the break, with a view to contesting the points in the mountain classification, and it's also a mountain top finish. Rodriguez is probably good enough to contest the win without being in the break, Voekler almost certainly needs to be in a breakaway to win.
I'm having a small wager on Voekler, in the hope that he gets away, and I'm siding once again with Blel Kadri, 200/1 with Skybet, who did us a favour earlier in the tour on a fairly similar stage. I think if the peleton catches the break it will be difficult for anyone to beat Valverde at the top of the last climb, where the gradients ease and he's the fastest sprinter amongst the climbers.
It's a good time to note riders who will target a stage win in the mountains. My shortlist includes Nicholas Roche, capable of winning from the peleton. Michael Rodgers, probably needs to get away in the break. Daniel Navarro, like Roche he's also capable of winning amongst the favs. Yuri Trofimov is a rider who relies on sheer strength and endurance and would be a breakaway candidate.
I'm having a small wager on Voekler, in the hope that he gets away, and I'm siding once again with Blel Kadri, 200/1 with Skybet, who did us a favour earlier in the tour on a fairly similar stage. I think if the peleton catches the break it will be difficult for anyone to beat Valverde at the top of the last climb, where the gradients ease and he's the fastest sprinter amongst the climbers.
It's a good time to note riders who will target a stage win in the mountains. My shortlist includes Nicholas Roche, capable of winning from the peleton. Michael Rodgers, probably needs to get away in the break. Daniel Navarro, like Roche he's also capable of winning amongst the favs. Yuri Trofimov is a rider who relies on sheer strength and endurance and would be a breakaway candidate.
Vicenzo Nibali has put his stamp well and truly on the big prize with another dominant display in stage 13. The anticipated breakaway was never allowed, by Katusha, to get any gap on the field and was therefore never going to prevail. The reason the break wasn't allowed away was because Rodriguez wasn't in it. Expect the break on stage 14 to allow "Purito" to join them, and then to get a healthy lead on the peleton which might well be a winning one.
With that in mind I'm looking to Rodriguez to win this climbing stage. There will be no big odds on offer. The riders mentioned previously are likely to figure, and it's now likely that Team Sky will wish to get into the mix now that they don't have a contender for the podium. Please note that Daniel Navarro has retired from the race due to illness.
With that in mind I'm looking to Rodriguez to win this climbing stage. There will be no big odds on offer. The riders mentioned previously are likely to figure, and it's now likely that Team Sky will wish to get into the mix now that they don't have a contender for the podium. Please note that Daniel Navarro has retired from the race due to illness.
A day for the sprinters, before a well earned rest day.
This is where I repeat myself, yet again.
Marcel Kittel is the best sprinter in the field, and he'll start at a shade of odds on for that reason, and he's the one they have to beat. If you like to find flaws then there are certainly a few if's, not least that Kittel's final leadout man is out of the race, and he does benefit more than most from his superior leadout train.
The clear second best sprinter is Andre Greipel, and at 7/1 with paddy', that makes him worth my quid each way. Greipel has a knack of finding a way to get in the mix, even when it gets messy. He's also less damaged by the climbs than many of his opponents.
One of these days Peter Sagan will decide he's already bagged the green jersey prize, and he'll work for his "servant", Elia Viviani, a fair sprinter in his own right, and probably faster than Sagan when things pan out for him. He's over 100/1 because he's not expected to go for it.
There will be a breakaway, and the sprinters' teams will have to chase it down, because the race leaders would be quite happy to give them a 20 minute start. We'll find out which teams have enough firepower to chase the break. I suspect three teams will share the honours, so as not to reveal weaknesses.
Of course if Corals are offering 150/1 about big Tony Martin having a go at it I'm probably going to be tempted. To be fair, I think it's rather a long stage for him to get interested, unless the break is brought back early enough for a counter attack to go.
N.B. :twisted: Rain forecast, and a very tight and technical finish all make for a rather precarious finish, where yet again staying upright is the first aim.
This is where I repeat myself, yet again.
Marcel Kittel is the best sprinter in the field, and he'll start at a shade of odds on for that reason, and he's the one they have to beat. If you like to find flaws then there are certainly a few if's, not least that Kittel's final leadout man is out of the race, and he does benefit more than most from his superior leadout train.
The clear second best sprinter is Andre Greipel, and at 7/1 with paddy', that makes him worth my quid each way. Greipel has a knack of finding a way to get in the mix, even when it gets messy. He's also less damaged by the climbs than many of his opponents.
One of these days Peter Sagan will decide he's already bagged the green jersey prize, and he'll work for his "servant", Elia Viviani, a fair sprinter in his own right, and probably faster than Sagan when things pan out for him. He's over 100/1 because he's not expected to go for it.
There will be a breakaway, and the sprinters' teams will have to chase it down, because the race leaders would be quite happy to give them a 20 minute start. We'll find out which teams have enough firepower to chase the break. I suspect three teams will share the honours, so as not to reveal weaknesses.
Of course if Corals are offering 150/1 about big Tony Martin having a go at it I'm probably going to be tempted. To be fair, I think it's rather a long stage for him to get interested, unless the break is brought back early enough for a counter attack to go.N.B. :twisted: Rain forecast, and a very tight and technical finish all make for a rather precarious finish, where yet again staying upright is the first aim.
