Stage 16 takes the race to the Pyrenees, and at 237.5 km. is the longest stage in this tour. there are some minor climbs en route, but the first real test doesn't arrive until beyond half way, and that's when we'll see who's going well. There's a tricky descent off this cat.2 climb and then there's a cat 3 sitting between the riders and the final climb which is a proper test. The finish line is just over 21 km. from the top of the climb. A fast descent and a flat final 3 km. await the leaders.
This stage screams breakaway, and riders like Thomas Voekler will target the breakaway. Roche and Michael Rodgers and Geraint Thomas and Gianni Visconti are also likely to try to get into the break.
There are a number of ways this could pan out, and much will depend upon whether the K.O.M. contenders want to get into the break. Personally I think Allesandro De Marchi will go in the breakaway, and attempt to pick up points where he can. Whether Majka or Rodriguez will try for it is anyone's guess. Expect a frantic start, with the days break possibly not established until after the first hour of racing. If anyone within 15 minutes of the yellow jersey gets into the break it may never be allowed enough of a lead to survive. There's also a possibility that Nibali might set it up for one of his soldiers, but wednesday's stage is a really tough one, so that's an outside chance.
Accordingly there's no clear favorite for the stage, with bookmakers going 10/1 and better for the riders. Peter Sagan will surely join the break and take the intermediate sprint points, but he won't keep up with the real climbers, and there will be some, on the final climb. If Rui Costa has recovered from his illness then this stage would suit him, but it's difficult enough to pick the winner without guessing whether a rider's actually in good health. Sky will have at least one man in the breakaway, and as I said earlier I do like Thomas as a win contender, and Tommy Voekler, although not at big odds, will give it a go. I'll probably have a little bet in running once they settle down. Of course I'll have my quid on Blel Kadri @ 100/1 on betfair once again, in the hope that this cooler ride will suit him better.
Same old story, if the peleton catches up then the climbers can't outsprint Valverde.
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Tour de France stage previews .. the final week
Well we were in the mix on stage 16, with Michael Rodgers taking the win from Tommy Voekler, and Team Sky's selected rider finishing third.
Stage 17 seems a tad more straightforward.
Majka and Rodriguez and De Marchi have been saving themselves for this monster of a day in the mountains.
I cannot see any scenario other than these three get into the breakaway and try to win the K.O.M. points. However, unless the breakaway has enough strong riders it will find it difficult to last and take the win. This is further muddied by the fact that, of the three, Rodriguez is superior by quite some way, however he's not yet on top form, and Majka looks the only one who might, if given enough leeway, have the form to hold on.
Nick Roche saved himself today, (he hasn't actually seemed at his best) but I expect him to join Majka in the breakaway and work the team game. Katusha don't really have a climber who can help Rodriguez.
Majka is at short odds to win this stage, but I think it will come down to the main contenders. Nibali could win, but doesn't have to. Thibot Pinot has looked the strongest of the others, with Valverde flagging slightly today, although not losing time. (never discount Valverde on a mountain top finish)
With Majka at too short odds I might favour Pinot for the win. Chris Horner, if recovered from his own ailments which weren't revealed at the time, might actually jump into the breakaway, and riding up these mountains would be easy for him if anywhere near fit.
so the skinny pound's being split between Pinot and Horner.
It'll be a monster day .... enjoy.
Stage 17 seems a tad more straightforward.
Majka and Rodriguez and De Marchi have been saving themselves for this monster of a day in the mountains.
I cannot see any scenario other than these three get into the breakaway and try to win the K.O.M. points. However, unless the breakaway has enough strong riders it will find it difficult to last and take the win. This is further muddied by the fact that, of the three, Rodriguez is superior by quite some way, however he's not yet on top form, and Majka looks the only one who might, if given enough leeway, have the form to hold on.
Nick Roche saved himself today, (he hasn't actually seemed at his best) but I expect him to join Majka in the breakaway and work the team game. Katusha don't really have a climber who can help Rodriguez.
Majka is at short odds to win this stage, but I think it will come down to the main contenders. Nibali could win, but doesn't have to. Thibot Pinot has looked the strongest of the others, with Valverde flagging slightly today, although not losing time. (never discount Valverde on a mountain top finish)
With Majka at too short odds I might favour Pinot for the win. Chris Horner, if recovered from his own ailments which weren't revealed at the time, might actually jump into the breakaway, and riding up these mountains would be easy for him if anywhere near fit.
so the skinny pound's being split between Pinot and Horner.
It'll be a monster day .... enjoy.
The final day in the mountains ... stage 18
Well Majka was indeed granted sufficient lead on stage 17, with a strong breakaway, and had the good form to hold on. This was no mean feat, only the riders at the very top of the general classification managed to gain any time on him on the final climb.
For the rest of the field, Nibali apart, it's becoming like a boxing match, with different riders looking wearier at the end of each round. Yesterday was the turn of Peraud to come out best of the rest. Bardet is still showing excellent form, after losing time the other day he attacked yesterday and made a brave effort to hold an advantage, the end result not really doing justice to his efforts.
Today really revolves around the King of the Mountains competition once again. Majka has a 31 point lead, and will seek to consolidate that. If he finishes in the top 6 on the final climb he wins that prize. Mathematically both Nibali and Rodriguez could beat him, but neither is likely. If he crosses the first big climb in first or second place he's then unbeatable, and I suspect that this, with the assistance of both Rodgers and Roche, will be the days first tactic.
It's a short stage, just over 145km., but it's anything but easy. around halfway the riders face the notorious climb of Col du Tourmalet, then a long descent is followed by another really hard climb to the finish.
I suspect the break will be allowed to cross the toumalet with around 3 minutes advantage, but they won't be an organised group by this time, and once again it will take a really strong and in form rider to hold off the pack. Yet again Majka has a chance, but yet again the odds on offer are single digits. (Nibali is 2/1 at best) Michael Rodgers is on offer in a place at 66/1, and I think that's tempting for my shilling. Of the other outsiders, probably Riblon could do something on a day like this. Whenever there's climbing of this magnitude to be done the names of Chris Horner and Joachim Rodriguez come to mind, however both have been in the wars of late, and neither has yet shown themselves to be in top form, although with Rodriguez it's really just a race fitness issue. When the breakaway leaders come within reach, I expect Nibali to go on the attack, and probably only Pinot and Peraud will be able to follow. It'll be an exciting day for sure.
Well Majka was indeed granted sufficient lead on stage 17, with a strong breakaway, and had the good form to hold on. This was no mean feat, only the riders at the very top of the general classification managed to gain any time on him on the final climb.
For the rest of the field, Nibali apart, it's becoming like a boxing match, with different riders looking wearier at the end of each round. Yesterday was the turn of Peraud to come out best of the rest. Bardet is still showing excellent form, after losing time the other day he attacked yesterday and made a brave effort to hold an advantage, the end result not really doing justice to his efforts.
Today really revolves around the King of the Mountains competition once again. Majka has a 31 point lead, and will seek to consolidate that. If he finishes in the top 6 on the final climb he wins that prize. Mathematically both Nibali and Rodriguez could beat him, but neither is likely. If he crosses the first big climb in first or second place he's then unbeatable, and I suspect that this, with the assistance of both Rodgers and Roche, will be the days first tactic.
It's a short stage, just over 145km., but it's anything but easy. around halfway the riders face the notorious climb of Col du Tourmalet, then a long descent is followed by another really hard climb to the finish.
I suspect the break will be allowed to cross the toumalet with around 3 minutes advantage, but they won't be an organised group by this time, and once again it will take a really strong and in form rider to hold off the pack. Yet again Majka has a chance, but yet again the odds on offer are single digits. (Nibali is 2/1 at best) Michael Rodgers is on offer in a place at 66/1, and I think that's tempting for my shilling. Of the other outsiders, probably Riblon could do something on a day like this. Whenever there's climbing of this magnitude to be done the names of Chris Horner and Joachim Rodriguez come to mind, however both have been in the wars of late, and neither has yet shown themselves to be in top form, although with Rodriguez it's really just a race fitness issue. When the breakaway leaders come within reach, I expect Nibali to go on the attack, and probably only Pinot and Peraud will be able to follow. It'll be an exciting day for sure.
Nibali took stage 18 with some authority, and pretty much put a seal on the overall race victory.
Majka rode strong again, finishing in third place, to clinch the King of the Mountains prize.
Stage 19 is a "flat" stage, just a tad over 200km, but nevertheless a bit lumpy through the last 15 or so kilometers. the last 4km are flat, but quite technical in parts. The last climb is short, but steep enough to cause problems and spark some action, then downhill to the finale is on narrow roads.
The sprinters will target this stage, and their teams will work together to keep a leash on the breakaway. For most riders this is a last chance of a stage win, so there will be lots of action. Sagan will try to ensure a furious pace through the final climb, in order to drop the fast boys. The puncheurs will launch an attack at any time, and the sprint trains will be trying furiously, provided the roads are dry, to keep tabs on everyone.
Omega Pharma is full of riders who will wish to try their luck here. Tony Martin, (not likely to go in the breakaway as it's the time trial saturday) Terpstra, Bakelandts, and Kwaitkowski are all capable of getting involved. Then they have a sprinter in Trentin who has already delivered on this tour.
Sagan will start favorite, but I think if it comes to a sprint someone will be too fast for him.
I've opted for Chavanel in previous stages, and I think this finish plays to his strengths. Whether anyone will get a sufficient gap off the final short climb, and be able to hold the pack for 4km. remains to be seen.
Bear in mind that Team Sky are still chasing a stage win, and without a sprinter they will look to get someone in the break. Maybe time for Thomas to step up, although Kirienka and Eissel are both strong riders.
The finish will be exciting for sure.
Majka rode strong again, finishing in third place, to clinch the King of the Mountains prize.
Stage 19 is a "flat" stage, just a tad over 200km, but nevertheless a bit lumpy through the last 15 or so kilometers. the last 4km are flat, but quite technical in parts. The last climb is short, but steep enough to cause problems and spark some action, then downhill to the finale is on narrow roads.
The sprinters will target this stage, and their teams will work together to keep a leash on the breakaway. For most riders this is a last chance of a stage win, so there will be lots of action. Sagan will try to ensure a furious pace through the final climb, in order to drop the fast boys. The puncheurs will launch an attack at any time, and the sprint trains will be trying furiously, provided the roads are dry, to keep tabs on everyone.
Omega Pharma is full of riders who will wish to try their luck here. Tony Martin, (not likely to go in the breakaway as it's the time trial saturday) Terpstra, Bakelandts, and Kwaitkowski are all capable of getting involved. Then they have a sprinter in Trentin who has already delivered on this tour.
Sagan will start favorite, but I think if it comes to a sprint someone will be too fast for him.
I've opted for Chavanel in previous stages, and I think this finish plays to his strengths. Whether anyone will get a sufficient gap off the final short climb, and be able to hold the pack for 4km. remains to be seen.
Bear in mind that Team Sky are still chasing a stage win, and without a sprinter they will look to get someone in the break. Maybe time for Thomas to step up, although Kirienka and Eissel are both strong riders.
The finish will be exciting for sure.
Stage 19 went to Navardauskas, after a very strong and enterprising ride saw him jump clear of the ensuing mayhem at the front of the peleton. More crashes, but I didn't notice any serious injuries this time.
I've never seen so many weary riders at this stage of a grand tour. This time trial, at 54km. is a tough one, and might well be the last straw for some riders. There are 164 riders left in the race at the moment, and most have only one ambition, to finish the race.
The Test:
Tony Martin, if fit and well, is really in a league of his own in this type of contest, and he certainly seems to be as healthy as anyone else. There is a danger that Tony might put up such a strong performance that some riders won't make it home in time, and therefore be eliminated.
Only the T.T. specialists, and those at the top of the general classification will ride this as hard as possible. (those struggling to survive too, obviously, but they don't enter calculations insofar as the podium's concerned.)
Vincenzo Nibali is by far the strongest rider at this stage of the race, and I expect him to be well up the finishing order.
Luke Durbridge is one of just a few time trial specialists in the event, and would expect to challenge for a spot on the podium.
Tom Dumoulin and Tejay Van Garderen can be expected to go well, so can the Sky boys Kirienka and Thomas. Westra, Tuft and Jan Barta, as well as Michael Rodgers are likely to give it a go.
My personal pick for a place without Tony Martin in the contest is team mate Michael Kwiatkowski, who showed no interest yesterday, in a stage which appeared to suit his skills. Of course it could be that he's just not feeling great, thus making my selection worthless. I read up on the team news on Twitter, but they tend not to reveal any weaknesses.
Enjoy.
I've never seen so many weary riders at this stage of a grand tour. This time trial, at 54km. is a tough one, and might well be the last straw for some riders. There are 164 riders left in the race at the moment, and most have only one ambition, to finish the race.
The Test:
Tony Martin, if fit and well, is really in a league of his own in this type of contest, and he certainly seems to be as healthy as anyone else. There is a danger that Tony might put up such a strong performance that some riders won't make it home in time, and therefore be eliminated.
Only the T.T. specialists, and those at the top of the general classification will ride this as hard as possible. (those struggling to survive too, obviously, but they don't enter calculations insofar as the podium's concerned.)
Vincenzo Nibali is by far the strongest rider at this stage of the race, and I expect him to be well up the finishing order.
Luke Durbridge is one of just a few time trial specialists in the event, and would expect to challenge for a spot on the podium.
Tom Dumoulin and Tejay Van Garderen can be expected to go well, so can the Sky boys Kirienka and Thomas. Westra, Tuft and Jan Barta, as well as Michael Rodgers are likely to give it a go.
My personal pick for a place without Tony Martin in the contest is team mate Michael Kwiatkowski, who showed no interest yesterday, in a stage which appeared to suit his skills. Of course it could be that he's just not feeling great, thus making my selection worthless. I read up on the team news on Twitter, but they tend not to reveal any weaknesses.
Enjoy.
Stage 21 is always the stage which the sprinters consider their annual championship race, and as before Marcel Kittel will start a shade of odds on to win in what is usually a fairly straightforward bunch sprint, if such a thing is possible.
Marcel Kittel is the fastest sprinter in the peleton and could prevail yet again.
Andre Greipel is the second best, and at 7/1, he's probably more likely to carry my pound.
Kristoff's in terrific form, but he'll need luck to get over the top of the big two.
Sprints always get messy at some point, and often a small each way wager can be rewarded with big odds available.
Tinkoff have declared that their veteran sprinter Daniele Bennati can win, as he did in 2007, but I would be surprised if he made the first two.
Peter Sagan isn't as fast as the favorites, but he's tremendously strong and in great form, and has a knack of forcing his way onto the right wheel in the closing stages, thereby getting a tow onto the podium. It was considered that Sagan would have won a stage, to accompany his green jersey, by this point, and as such might have allowed his leadout man Elia Viviani to contest the sprint. As I've said before, Viviani is potentially quicker than Sagan, and might be knocking on the door if he's allowed his head.
David Cimolai is another rider, at huge odds, with a big result in him.
Let's hope for dry conditions and a truly run contest, which will tell us more about, or confirm, the pecking order among the sprinters.
I'm really curious to see how Coquard can perform at the end of such a race.
Finally:
I hope my humble offerings have been of interest to some of you. Like all sports fans, I've enjoyed sharing my thoughts and opinions with you.
...an afterthought: this is thought to be Jens Voigt's final appearance in the great race; expect Jens to take off in front at some point, even if it's just as a salute to the fans on the Champs Elysees.
Marcel Kittel is the fastest sprinter in the peleton and could prevail yet again.
Andre Greipel is the second best, and at 7/1, he's probably more likely to carry my pound.
Kristoff's in terrific form, but he'll need luck to get over the top of the big two.
Sprints always get messy at some point, and often a small each way wager can be rewarded with big odds available.
Tinkoff have declared that their veteran sprinter Daniele Bennati can win, as he did in 2007, but I would be surprised if he made the first two.
Peter Sagan isn't as fast as the favorites, but he's tremendously strong and in great form, and has a knack of forcing his way onto the right wheel in the closing stages, thereby getting a tow onto the podium. It was considered that Sagan would have won a stage, to accompany his green jersey, by this point, and as such might have allowed his leadout man Elia Viviani to contest the sprint. As I've said before, Viviani is potentially quicker than Sagan, and might be knocking on the door if he's allowed his head.
David Cimolai is another rider, at huge odds, with a big result in him.
Let's hope for dry conditions and a truly run contest, which will tell us more about, or confirm, the pecking order among the sprinters.
I'm really curious to see how Coquard can perform at the end of such a race.
Finally:
I hope my humble offerings have been of interest to some of you. Like all sports fans, I've enjoyed sharing my thoughts and opinions with you.
...an afterthought: this is thought to be Jens Voigt's final appearance in the great race; expect Jens to take off in front at some point, even if it's just as a salute to the fans on the Champs Elysees.
