A mind game for you all....

Quote by banlwales
If you're bored and want to spin your head a bit...and assuming you haven't read the recent popular novel that contains this.....
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Quote by banlwales
If you're bored and want to spin your head a bit...and assuming you haven't read the recent popular novel that contains this.....
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Quote by Liaisons
If I assume that goats are a bit prickerly like Jaymar can be at times, then perhaps you would not put 2 goats next to each other. If this was the case then stick with door 1. If the goats and the car can be arranged in any order without problems occuring, there would be no advantage in switching your choice.

Quote by Liaisons
If I assume that goats are a bit prickerly like Jaymar can be at times, then perhaps you would not put 2 goats next to each other. If this was the case then stick with door 1. If the goats and the car can be arranged in any order without problems occuring, there would be no advantage in switching your choice.

Quote by banlwales

If I assume that goats are a bit prickerly like Jaymar can be at times, then perhaps you would not put 2 goats next to each other. If this was the case then stick with door 1. If the goats and the car can be arranged in any order without problems occuring, there would be no advantage in switching your choice.

Quote by Liaisons
If you're bored and want to spin your head a bit...and assuming you haven't read the recent popular novel that contains this.....
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Quote by banlwales
the answer..?
it's better to switch.
here's why....
This is the "Monty Hall" problem
go to wikipedia and read all about it at very great length.
Once the host has opened a door, the car must be behind one of the two remaining doors. Since there is no way for the player to know which of these doors is the winning door, many people assume that each door has an equal probability and conclude that switching does not matter (Mueser and Granberg, 1999). This "equal probability" assumption, while being intuitively seductive, is actually incorrect.
The player has a one in three chance of initially choosing the car and a two in three chance of initially choosing a goat. In both cases the host must reveal a goat. If the player initially chose the car, then switching loses; but if the player initially chose a goat, the host must reveal the other goat and switching wins since the only remaining door must be the door with the car.
When the player is asked whether to switch, there are three possible situations corresponding to the player's initial choice, each with probability 1/3:
The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 1. The game host has shown the other goat.
The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 2. The game host has shown the other goat.
The player originally picked the door hiding the car. The game host has shown either of the two goats.
If the player chooses to switch, the player wins the car in the first two cases. A player choosing to stay with the initial choice wins in only the third case. Since in two out of three equally likely cases switching wins, the probability of winning by switching is 2/3. In other words, players who switch will win the car on average two times out of three.

Quote by Liaisons
I have read part of the Wikipedia article and I currently disagree with it. I have studied probabilty theory when younger but my mind is spinning somewhat reading the explanation which I am not convinced by at the moment.
I will run some simulations of the problem to see if I get a 50:50 or 3:2 advantage in switching and report back my results when they are available

Quote by Liaisons
Having thought about it some more, I feel the simulation may well prove the artcle correct.
And Jaymar I hate to say this but I am starting to dislike you

Quote by Liaisons
And Jaymar I hate to say this but I am starting to dislike you

Quote by jaymar
These brain plexing words and shapes, and their positions, can be used to derive a word or saying.
Here goes...
example: MEREPEAT = Repeat after me
Have a go at these ones..
M&AR
GR 12" AVE
faredce
o er t o
cotaxme

Quote by jaymar
These brain plexing words and shapes, and their positions, can be used to derive a word or saying.
Here goes...
example: MEREPEAT = Repeat after me
Have a go at these ones..
M&AR
GR 12" AVE
faredce
o er t o
cotaxme

Quote by blonde
faredce
Red in the face? :smug:
Sam xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Quote by Warmer
cotaxme = income tax

Quote by blonde
M&AR
The answer to this is Mandarin Orange ....... but it wasnt pasted in orange!!!!
:smug:
Makes it difficult to guess when you only have half a clue!
Sam xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Quote by blonde
I've got one!
k k
c c
u u
t t
s s
word word word word
What is it? :giggle:
Sam xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx