Years since I lived close to Olympia, and the pubs change all the time, so really depends what your looking for, and of course what day/night your out and about.
Hammersmith Broadway is just down the road, and Earls Court is just a hop away, as is Shepherds Bush. Fulham and the King's Road are just 5 minutes in a cab. Your only 15 minutes or so tube ride from the West End too.
Might be worth having a look at Time Out, or an online pub/bar review.
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skinny
1 day ago
Straight Male, 76
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I've heard it spoken of, the inserted sponge that is, by some working girls who prefer not to miss work. In actual fact they could be missing a trick, pardon the pun, because there are guys out there who would seek the opportunity to be with her at this time of the month.
However, as 'Laine said, and as Miss Very pointed out, you are likely to be among some strangers, and unsuspecting folks; sharing facilities, and risking making a mess in someone else's property, not to mention the increased risk of infections. Mostly it would probably just make you, and some others, feel uncomfortable. There's not the slightest doubt that a whole bunch of guys would still want to play, regardless, but even those who genuinely care about you will have their own opinions, and preferences, regarding playing at that time of the month.
However, as 'Laine said, and as Miss Very pointed out, you are likely to be among some strangers, and unsuspecting folks; sharing facilities, and risking making a mess in someone else's property, not to mention the increased risk of infections. Mostly it would probably just make you, and some others, feel uncomfortable. There's not the slightest doubt that a whole bunch of guys would still want to play, regardless, but even those who genuinely care about you will have their own opinions, and preferences, regarding playing at that time of the month.
Sunday:
The road race (elite men) takes place on Sunday, over the very tricky circuit around Richmond, VA, and includes a number of short but steep climbs, some cobbled. There are only a couple of genuinely difficult old fashioned cobbled sections, and they are very short, but they will make this race very difficult to control.
Riders are picked to represent their nation and not their pro team, and it's not always easy to guage how much cooperation will exist within a national team, as each rider is essentially riding for himself, and it's always possible that team loyalties might come into play, although no one would admit that.
Like the Flemish classics, expect a breakaway to sit on a lead of near double digits for much of the first half of the contest. There are, because of the qualification process, only a handful of teams with a full squad of riders, and it's likely that they will seek to control the greatest part of this contest, with perhaps another team sending a helper in from time to time to ensure things are kept under control. Last year the Polish team were to the fore, and chasing down breakaways, before Michael Kwiatkowski made his winning move.
The bookies favourites are the usual suspects, being the sprinters who climb well, and the punchy classics riders. SkyBet and Corals are paying on 4 places Each Way. Boylesports are paying out on 5 places.
Kristoff, Dagenkolb, Sagan, and Mathews head the lists. Van Aevermat, Gilbert, Stybar, Valverde and Kwiatkowski make up the next band as far as the odds layers are concerned, and all of these riders are proven capable in such a contest. Needless to say, this is a very open and unpredictable event, even though, barring mishaps, (and rain is forecast) we can usually have a fair idea of who will still be in there giving it a go through the final 50km, or 3 circuits of this course.
During the last two or three circuits there will be numerous attacks off the front, and any hesitation in closing them down could lead to the race being stolen. At the very least there is likely to be a winning attack by a smaller group, or by one of the very classy and in form riders, and it won't need to be in the final few kilometers. There just won't be enough teams left to chase, and individuals might be reluctant to take the fast boys to the finish. Having said that, all of the riders mentioned above have proven willing to fight to join a break themselves. That is often how these races are won.
I've had a bet on Juan Jose Lobato, and although he'd have been better suited had the finish been atop that final climb, I still think he has the form to get involved. I've also had a small Each Way wager on both Rigoberto Uran, 150/1, and on Vasil Kyrienka, 300/1. I would have fancied Tom Dumoulin for this, but his recent injury and tough Vuelta might have left their mark.
Matti Breschel often features in these end of season battles, and this one should suit him well. He's available at 50/1.
This is a contest to savour, and perhaps have a little wager on your own favourite rider.
The race will be televised live, and in play betting will be widely available. I often advise betting on the classics once they get to that final 50km, and that's probably fair advice here, for anyone wishing to get involved.
The road race (elite men) takes place on Sunday, over the very tricky circuit around Richmond, VA, and includes a number of short but steep climbs, some cobbled. There are only a couple of genuinely difficult old fashioned cobbled sections, and they are very short, but they will make this race very difficult to control.
Riders are picked to represent their nation and not their pro team, and it's not always easy to guage how much cooperation will exist within a national team, as each rider is essentially riding for himself, and it's always possible that team loyalties might come into play, although no one would admit that.
Like the Flemish classics, expect a breakaway to sit on a lead of near double digits for much of the first half of the contest. There are, because of the qualification process, only a handful of teams with a full squad of riders, and it's likely that they will seek to control the greatest part of this contest, with perhaps another team sending a helper in from time to time to ensure things are kept under control. Last year the Polish team were to the fore, and chasing down breakaways, before Michael Kwiatkowski made his winning move.
The bookies favourites are the usual suspects, being the sprinters who climb well, and the punchy classics riders. SkyBet and Corals are paying on 4 places Each Way. Boylesports are paying out on 5 places.
Kristoff, Dagenkolb, Sagan, and Mathews head the lists. Van Aevermat, Gilbert, Stybar, Valverde and Kwiatkowski make up the next band as far as the odds layers are concerned, and all of these riders are proven capable in such a contest. Needless to say, this is a very open and unpredictable event, even though, barring mishaps, (and rain is forecast) we can usually have a fair idea of who will still be in there giving it a go through the final 50km, or 3 circuits of this course.
During the last two or three circuits there will be numerous attacks off the front, and any hesitation in closing them down could lead to the race being stolen. At the very least there is likely to be a winning attack by a smaller group, or by one of the very classy and in form riders, and it won't need to be in the final few kilometers. There just won't be enough teams left to chase, and individuals might be reluctant to take the fast boys to the finish. Having said that, all of the riders mentioned above have proven willing to fight to join a break themselves. That is often how these races are won.
I've had a bet on Juan Jose Lobato, and although he'd have been better suited had the finish been atop that final climb, I still think he has the form to get involved. I've also had a small Each Way wager on both Rigoberto Uran, 150/1, and on Vasil Kyrienka, 300/1. I would have fancied Tom Dumoulin for this, but his recent injury and tough Vuelta might have left their mark.
Matti Breschel often features in these end of season battles, and this one should suit him well. He's available at 50/1.
This is a contest to savour, and perhaps have a little wager on your own favourite rider.
The race will be televised live, and in play betting will be widely available. I often advise betting on the classics once they get to that final 50km, and that's probably fair advice here, for anyone wishing to get involved.
The Elite Women's road race:
Saturday's World Championships, women's road race, in Richmond, Virginia, offers up an opportunity for Lizzie Armistead to lift the title. Armistead is race favourite, and should be well suited to this hilly test. Rain is forecast for the weekend and, whereas this makes the cycling precarious, we know that Lizzie doesn't falter in the wet. I think, with her proven ability to accelerate uphill, she has a serious chance at winning this contest.
Anyone who watched the women's ITT could not fail to be impressed by the way Anna Van Der Breggan rode those final kilometers to finish 2nd., and she too will be well fancied for this event, as will 3rd placed Lisa Brennauer. New Zealander, Linda Villumsen won the time trial, and she too is taking her chance in the road race. Villumsen would have to get clear from some way out for her to have a chance, and is currently on offer at 80/1.
As ever, I look for value for my small wager, and I think I've found that in the American rider, Megan Guarnier. At 20/1 I think this represents solid Each Way value. Megan has competed well, at a high level, for much of this year, and will have prepared well for this event. With strong team support, and a proven ability over such terrain, I think she will feature in the finish.
Saturday's World Championships, women's road race, in Richmond, Virginia, offers up an opportunity for Lizzie Armistead to lift the title. Armistead is race favourite, and should be well suited to this hilly test. Rain is forecast for the weekend and, whereas this makes the cycling precarious, we know that Lizzie doesn't falter in the wet. I think, with her proven ability to accelerate uphill, she has a serious chance at winning this contest.
Anyone who watched the women's ITT could not fail to be impressed by the way Anna Van Der Breggan rode those final kilometers to finish 2nd., and she too will be well fancied for this event, as will 3rd placed Lisa Brennauer. New Zealander, Linda Villumsen won the time trial, and she too is taking her chance in the road race. Villumsen would have to get clear from some way out for her to have a chance, and is currently on offer at 80/1.
As ever, I look for value for my small wager, and I think I've found that in the American rider, Megan Guarnier. At 20/1 I think this represents solid Each Way value. Megan has competed well, at a high level, for much of this year, and will have prepared well for this event. With strong team support, and a proven ability over such terrain, I think she will feature in the finish.
I used to tell first wife I really fancied a nice roast dinner that I hadn't cooked m'self ..... she was lovely, but couldnae cook to save her life.
I used to tell wife no. 2 that I used to fantasize about thinking for m'self ... she used to tell me to shut up!
I still tell my 3rd wife that the day I met her all my fantasies had come true.
You should be able to tell your partner more or less whatever's on your mind, if you can't do this then you're probably cheating in some way.
I used to tell wife no. 2 that I used to fantasize about thinking for m'self ... she used to tell me to shut up!
I still tell my 3rd wife that the day I met her all my fantasies had come true.
You should be able to tell your partner more or less whatever's on your mind, if you can't do this then you're probably cheating in some way.
Ruben Plaza wins stage 20, from Concalves, with De Marchi in 3rd.
Aru wins La Vuelta Espana, from Purito Rodriguez, and Majka in third, providing they all get home safe on Sunday.
Well the race is over, all bar the nervous parade to get the riders over the finishing hurdle which is stage 21. The sprinters, what's left of them, should have their day at last.
Very few left, and Dagenkolb remains the best of them, although it's impossible to know what form any of them are in. Danny Van Poppel is probably the second fastest, if we don't count Dagenkolb's own leadout men.
No bets for me in this stage, I shall watch them ride in and applaud the spectacle which they've provided these past three weeks.
Aru wins La Vuelta Espana, from Purito Rodriguez, and Majka in third, providing they all get home safe on Sunday.
Well the race is over, all bar the nervous parade to get the riders over the finishing hurdle which is stage 21. The sprinters, what's left of them, should have their day at last.
Very few left, and Dagenkolb remains the best of them, although it's impossible to know what form any of them are in. Danny Van Poppel is probably the second fastest, if we don't count Dagenkolb's own leadout men.
No bets for me in this stage, I shall watch them ride in and applaud the spectacle which they've provided these past three weeks.
This is something which Joe Dombrowski, (you'll have heard me mention his name when mountains appeared) tweeted last week:
"Cycling is cruel. Objective: breakaway and go for stage. Reality: Crash at km 0, bash knee, go full up climb 1 and catch broom wagon on top."
Kind of lets you have an insight into what goes on in a bike race.
"Cycling is cruel. Objective: breakaway and go for stage. Reality: Crash at km 0, bash knee, go full up climb 1 and catch broom wagon on top."
Kind of lets you have an insight into what goes on in a bike race.
The end is almost in sight, at least for the G.C. candidates, and this is their final chance to make a difference.
For the climbers, this is the last opportunity to win a stage, and there will be plenty who still think they may have a chance. Whether or not the breakaway will succeed today very much depends upon how early the G.C. boys begin to test each other. Giant won't be interested, nor able, to control a break today, so it will be up to Astana and Movistar to take control.
Today's stage begins with a climb, meaning that the smaller guys have a chance of making the breakaway this time. The Columbians did well to get three riders in yesterday's break, but I'm not sure any of them have it left in them to win a stage now.
There are 4 cat.1 climbs today, then 4 descents to be dealt with too, the final one taking the riders to a sharp turn onto the uphill finish, which is around a furlong at 10%. It's impossible to think "downhill off a cat.1 and onto a short uphill sprint" without having Valverde in your mind. On paper this stage is perfect for him.
Movistar are locked in a battle with Sky for the team classification, and how they ride this will very much depend upon whether they sense they still have a possibility of getting a podium place; although unlikely, it's not impossible, and Quintana seems to be much better than he was a week ago. Rodriguez, Majka and Quintana will be monitoring each other closely.
I think, this time, it all comes back together, and the winner is going to be a climber who has been able to ride in with the main contenders. Someone who's not a threat to the red jersey might be able to get a gap over the last climb, then manage to hold on for the win. Dumoulin will just try to hang in there and, once the last climb is done with, he's as likely a candidate as anyone else. My own pick for the win is the Katusha rider, Danny Moreno, who is riding at the top of his form. It's always risky to bet on someone who's priority will be to assist his captain, and Rodriguez is also his close friend, but I think they both arrive safely at the finish, and Moreno has the sprint finish to land such a stage win.
Of course I won't be letting Dombrowski run without a small interest, but I've no idea how he's feeling right now; yesterday's ride was encouraging enough.
For the climbers, this is the last opportunity to win a stage, and there will be plenty who still think they may have a chance. Whether or not the breakaway will succeed today very much depends upon how early the G.C. boys begin to test each other. Giant won't be interested, nor able, to control a break today, so it will be up to Astana and Movistar to take control.
Today's stage begins with a climb, meaning that the smaller guys have a chance of making the breakaway this time. The Columbians did well to get three riders in yesterday's break, but I'm not sure any of them have it left in them to win a stage now.
There are 4 cat.1 climbs today, then 4 descents to be dealt with too, the final one taking the riders to a sharp turn onto the uphill finish, which is around a furlong at 10%. It's impossible to think "downhill off a cat.1 and onto a short uphill sprint" without having Valverde in your mind. On paper this stage is perfect for him.
Movistar are locked in a battle with Sky for the team classification, and how they ride this will very much depend upon whether they sense they still have a possibility of getting a podium place; although unlikely, it's not impossible, and Quintana seems to be much better than he was a week ago. Rodriguez, Majka and Quintana will be monitoring each other closely.
I think, this time, it all comes back together, and the winner is going to be a climber who has been able to ride in with the main contenders. Someone who's not a threat to the red jersey might be able to get a gap over the last climb, then manage to hold on for the win. Dumoulin will just try to hang in there and, once the last climb is done with, he's as likely a candidate as anyone else. My own pick for the win is the Katusha rider, Danny Moreno, who is riding at the top of his form. It's always risky to bet on someone who's priority will be to assist his captain, and Rodriguez is also his close friend, but I think they both arrive safely at the finish, and Moreno has the sprint finish to land such a stage win.
Of course I won't be letting Dombrowski run without a small interest, but I've no idea how he's feeling right now; yesterday's ride was encouraging enough.
Stage 19 is yet another day which is perfect for the breakaway to take the win. Just as was the case yesterday, there will be some 40+ riders trying to make it into that group, and yet again Sky and Movistar will almost surely get a man in the break.
Ordinarily, in a grand tour, we wouldn't see riders in the break on consecutive days, but for many riders, those who climb less well and can't match the pure sprinters, this is their last chance of a stage win. Once again there is a relatively flat start, so the pace will be frantic, meaning the stronger riders have an advantage insofar as making the break is concerned. I was thinking of Hanson, Concalves and Serry when I mentioned "consecutive days", this stage has less climbing, and would suit each better.
Visconti tried, but failed, to make the cut yesterday; he can be relied upon to try again today, but 14/1 for someone you hope makes it just isn't great value.
The other strong guys, Cummings, Kyrienka, Chavanel and Oliveira can all be expected to show further ambition today. Julien Simon will also fancy his chances, and would be amongst the fastest at the finish.
Orica have been taking care of Chaves, but may feel they could let a couple of men have a go at this stage. In Simon Gerrans, who must be keen to test his form ahead of the Worlds, they have a prime candidate. Gerrans has mainly been riding himself into condition, while at the same time assisting Chaves and others, and his condition has to be taken on trust, but few would beat him here at his best. Daryl Impey is another rider from Orica who could feature, and he has been riding well.
Once again, whether or not it comes together depends upon Movistar wanting to set up Valverde, but with a tough mountain stage to come on Saturday I expect them to try from the breakaway. Giant won't chase the break down, and these climbs aren't steep enough to put Dumoulin under pressure; in fact he is once again likely to feature should they regroup, and Astana don't want to give him the opportunity of bonus seconds.
A rider I expect to take a hand in this stage is Jerome Coppel, from IAM. Once considered a G.C. candidate, Coppel's form wained for some time, but he is at last showing something approaching his best. He has struggled on steeper climbs, but this course will suit him well, and he has that ability to ride away for a solo win if things fall into place.
Another rider perfectly capable of imposing himself on such a stage is Luis Leon Sanchez, but I rather think that Astana, having a reduced squad, will wish to keep him fresh to assist Aru on Saturday. Sanchez would have been my selection under different circumstances.
Ordinarily, in a grand tour, we wouldn't see riders in the break on consecutive days, but for many riders, those who climb less well and can't match the pure sprinters, this is their last chance of a stage win. Once again there is a relatively flat start, so the pace will be frantic, meaning the stronger riders have an advantage insofar as making the break is concerned. I was thinking of Hanson, Concalves and Serry when I mentioned "consecutive days", this stage has less climbing, and would suit each better.
Visconti tried, but failed, to make the cut yesterday; he can be relied upon to try again today, but 14/1 for someone you hope makes it just isn't great value.
The other strong guys, Cummings, Kyrienka, Chavanel and Oliveira can all be expected to show further ambition today. Julien Simon will also fancy his chances, and would be amongst the fastest at the finish.
Orica have been taking care of Chaves, but may feel they could let a couple of men have a go at this stage. In Simon Gerrans, who must be keen to test his form ahead of the Worlds, they have a prime candidate. Gerrans has mainly been riding himself into condition, while at the same time assisting Chaves and others, and his condition has to be taken on trust, but few would beat him here at his best. Daryl Impey is another rider from Orica who could feature, and he has been riding well.
Once again, whether or not it comes together depends upon Movistar wanting to set up Valverde, but with a tough mountain stage to come on Saturday I expect them to try from the breakaway. Giant won't chase the break down, and these climbs aren't steep enough to put Dumoulin under pressure; in fact he is once again likely to feature should they regroup, and Astana don't want to give him the opportunity of bonus seconds.
A rider I expect to take a hand in this stage is Jerome Coppel, from IAM. Once considered a G.C. candidate, Coppel's form wained for some time, but he is at last showing something approaching his best. He has struggled on steeper climbs, but this course will suit him well, and he has that ability to ride away for a solo win if things fall into place.
Another rider perfectly capable of imposing himself on such a stage is Luis Leon Sanchez, but I rather think that Astana, having a reduced squad, will wish to keep him fresh to assist Aru on Saturday. Sanchez would have been my selection under different circumstances.
Dumoulin now leads Aru by 3 seconds.
Unless Movistar are set on giving Valverde a shot at this stage then it's almost sure to be won from a breakaway. For the podium hopefuls to bring Dumoulin to the line, on this downhill finish, would be too risky, since he's a good descender , and he's fast in a sprint, so he might finish up with bonus seconds too. It's likely that a strong breakaway will go clear, then Astana will go as fast as they can up the final climb, just in the hope that Tom Dumoulin's wheels come off.
Movistar and Sky, both fighting for the team prize, are likely to want a rider in the breakaway.
I've had a little bet on Stephen Cummings once again, but it's really a case of seeing if there's any value in your personal favourite. If you wish to have a more serious punt, then betting in play is the preferred option.
Unless Movistar are set on giving Valverde a shot at this stage then it's almost sure to be won from a breakaway. For the podium hopefuls to bring Dumoulin to the line, on this downhill finish, would be too risky, since he's a good descender , and he's fast in a sprint, so he might finish up with bonus seconds too. It's likely that a strong breakaway will go clear, then Astana will go as fast as they can up the final climb, just in the hope that Tom Dumoulin's wheels come off.
Movistar and Sky, both fighting for the team prize, are likely to want a rider in the breakaway.
I've had a little bet on Stephen Cummings once again, but it's really a case of seeing if there's any value in your personal favourite. If you wish to have a more serious punt, then betting in play is the preferred option.
Quote by Joe_knox
Hi I am trying to find somewhere for me and my partner to go that has glory holes for her to use whilst I watch.
Ideally in London, Essex or Kent but the ones I can find are primarily gay/bi ones.
Hugely grateful if someone might be to direct me
Thanks
Joe.
The gay/bi glory holes you speak of will be frequented, in the main, by married men, who will be delightfully surprised if a woman shows up to join the fun, but I reckon the club's a safer option.
Quote by bittersweet47
I joined SH because i thought it was a great place to share my story (and hopefully meet like-minded folk). I really enjoyed reading a lot of the contributions, but I have to admit to being a bit disappointed by the number of fictional stories labeled as fact.
I have never been interested in reading the stories, just not my thing, so I'm unable to offer an opinion as to the truth or fantasy in the content.
It is true that guys like to brag about, and embelish, their stories of sexual conquest. It's also true that some people have had numerous and varied experiences which others have not, and sometimes it's hard to believe when you hear it come from a virtual stranger. For instance, if someone mentions, in a chatroom, that he/she has had over 500 lovers this year, then someone is going to pipe up with "yeah right" and "you wish", but it is true that some do have that many partners, and that's just a for instance. So swallow with a pinch of salt, but don't dismiss out of hand, there may well be some truth in these tales.
The Individual Time Trial:
Tom Dumoulain is around 2 minutes off the lead in La Vuelta, and he's odds on fav., and one of the best time trialers in the world. To be honest I thought he'd be some 5 or 6 minutes down after Monday's mountain stage, but it seems he's holding up better than most of his opposition.
Dumoulin is odds on with the bookmakers to win this stage, but it's not a formality, although there are only a handful of riders who might get the better of him, even if he is suffering some fatigue. Kyrienka would usually be some 18 to 30 seconds behind him, and Louis Leon Sanches a further few seconds back. Bodnar and Nikki Terpstra are another two who can put in a stirling effort at times too, as is Oliveira, and these boys will have been taking things much easier than Dumoulin these past few days.
Those challenging for the podium place are only fair at best, and will give it their all, but staying ahead of Dumoulin on this very flat course will require a career best performance from each and every one of them.
Tom Dumoulain is around 2 minutes off the lead in La Vuelta, and he's odds on fav., and one of the best time trialers in the world. To be honest I thought he'd be some 5 or 6 minutes down after Monday's mountain stage, but it seems he's holding up better than most of his opposition.
Dumoulin is odds on with the bookmakers to win this stage, but it's not a formality, although there are only a handful of riders who might get the better of him, even if he is suffering some fatigue. Kyrienka would usually be some 18 to 30 seconds behind him, and Louis Leon Sanches a further few seconds back. Bodnar and Nikki Terpstra are another two who can put in a stirling effort at times too, as is Oliveira, and these boys will have been taking things much easier than Dumoulin these past few days.
Those challenging for the podium place are only fair at best, and will give it their all, but staying ahead of Dumoulin on this very flat course will require a career best performance from each and every one of them.
stage 16 promises to be the hardest of this contest for the riders. Whereas the ultra tough stage 11 was ridden, for the most part, rather conservatively, this promises to be ridden at a frantic pace. The race has taken shape now, and there are numerous very strong climbers out of contention and looking for that elusive stage win. Add to that, Purito wants bonus seconds, and all the G.C. squads want to distance Dumoulin, and you have a recipe for a fantastic contest.
The stage begins on a climb, so the pure climbers have a chance of making the break this time. Then it's up and down all day, but the really hard part is in the final 45km with three really tough climbs. Descending skills, or lack of them, could be a factor too. Fortunately, for the riders, the roads remain unusually dry.
The breakaway, if it's strong enough, might well stay away, but only the best climbers can succeed today because, although it will be both difficult to control, and there's a need to save energy for that finish, the pace over the final 50km will be really fast. Once again there will be numerous riders targetting the break, and it would be easy to list twenty or more names.
I can't really point to a selection today and claim to have any confidence. I've had a small wager on Henao, and on Dombrowski, but I can see lots of alternatives. I can't even say I have a strong fancy as to which of the G.C. men will come out on top today, so I'll watch with baited breath as the drama unfolds, and I might have a bet in play once again.
good luck.
The stage begins on a climb, so the pure climbers have a chance of making the break this time. Then it's up and down all day, but the really hard part is in the final 45km with three really tough climbs. Descending skills, or lack of them, could be a factor too. Fortunately, for the riders, the roads remain unusually dry.
The breakaway, if it's strong enough, might well stay away, but only the best climbers can succeed today because, although it will be both difficult to control, and there's a need to save energy for that finish, the pace over the final 50km will be really fast. Once again there will be numerous riders targetting the break, and it would be easy to list twenty or more names.
I can't really point to a selection today and claim to have any confidence. I've had a small wager on Henao, and on Dombrowski, but I can see lots of alternatives. I can't even say I have a strong fancy as to which of the G.C. men will come out on top today, so I'll watch with baited breath as the drama unfolds, and I might have a bet in play once again.
good luck.
Good result for "in play" punters yesterday, with De Marchi the standout amongst his breakaway companions. We don't get to see the early part of the race, but the winner had 5 or 6 attempts to join a break before it finally stuck.
Many of the pure climbers are finding it difficult to get out of the pack when the pace has been so high and the roads so flat; you'll have seen young Louis Mentjes struggling to hold his place at times, when it's cranked up, on flat roads, and he's right up in the G.C..
Today promises to be much of the same, although there is some climbing en route to the final tough climb.
A breakaway has a chance once again, and once again it's pin sticking time. Sky are likely to want to join in again, but they are also considerate for the overall prospects of Nieve, and to a lesser extent Roche, who might himself attempt to get into a breakaway.
The G.C. has become more nervous than ever now, with the resurgance of Quintana. If Movistar feel that he and Valverde are up to it, then we might see a much more serious chase to the final climb.
It's impossible to tell whether Quintana can sustain his progress, and the lead seems a long way off, but he's still on offer at 5/2 to make the podium, and that's a distinct possibility.
I'm a big fan of Tom Dumoulain, but I think he loses some 30 seconds or so today, then tomorrow will see him drop off the podium. However, Dumoulin is capable of gaining 2 minutes on most of these riders in stage 17.
I'll be having a bet in play today, better guarantee of getting a run for your money; but I've also had a small wager on Zoidl at big odds.
good luck.
Many of the pure climbers are finding it difficult to get out of the pack when the pace has been so high and the roads so flat; you'll have seen young Louis Mentjes struggling to hold his place at times, when it's cranked up, on flat roads, and he's right up in the G.C..
Today promises to be much of the same, although there is some climbing en route to the final tough climb.
A breakaway has a chance once again, and once again it's pin sticking time. Sky are likely to want to join in again, but they are also considerate for the overall prospects of Nieve, and to a lesser extent Roche, who might himself attempt to get into a breakaway.
The G.C. has become more nervous than ever now, with the resurgance of Quintana. If Movistar feel that he and Valverde are up to it, then we might see a much more serious chase to the final climb.
It's impossible to tell whether Quintana can sustain his progress, and the lead seems a long way off, but he's still on offer at 5/2 to make the podium, and that's a distinct possibility.
I'm a big fan of Tom Dumoulain, but I think he loses some 30 seconds or so today, then tomorrow will see him drop off the podium. However, Dumoulin is capable of gaining 2 minutes on most of these riders in stage 17.
I'll be having a bet in play today, better guarantee of getting a run for your money; but I've also had a small wager on Zoidl at big odds.
good luck.
Stage 14:
Well I didn't see yesterday's winner coming, even after the breakaway was established, but a great ride by Lampre's man nevertheless.
Stage 14 isn't easy to call either. With a peleton laden with climbers, there just aren't many stages left for them, and once again there will be many looking to get into the breakaway, and there is a chance it'll make it to the finish, but just a chance.
The race hinges on two factors, in the main; firstly the top contenders know that they have to distance Tom Dumoulin before the time trial on stage 17, otherwise he wins this Vuelta. So, sticking with that for the moment, we just may see some collaboration between teams with a common interest, and they might attack on the penultimate climb, which is the hardest, but then there's almost 40km to go to the final, and less difficult, climb, so even staying away, after putting in an effort, isn't certain. I think, with Tiralonga absent, Astana will play cautiously, stay together, and attack on the final climb of the day, and that wouldn't usually be sufficient to reel in a strong breakaway.
What might keep the breakaway in check is the fight for top 10, even 20, places in the overall. Teams and riders, who have put in the effort thus far, aren't just going to allow someone to leapfrog them in the standings and do nothing about it. If there's any rider in the breakaway who's well placed overall, then the chase might come from teams not interested in the podium, and then of course everyone wants a shot at winning a stage, and this final climb isn't the hardest, those will come over the next two days.
So it's a bit of a pin sticker, as far as the winner's concerned. Obviously, if Landa was permitted to join the breakaway, then he'd be seriously difficult to beat, but I doubt that'll happen this time. Even so he may still be involved in the finale, but Aru would be the man they want to see on the podium. Whether or not Aru will go full gas up this incline will very much depend upon how well Dumoulin is going. There are tougher days to come, and keeping something in reserve could be crucial.
Someone like Atapuma could find this stage to his liking, and he's climbing well enough to get in the mix. Sky will target the breakaway once again, and I'd expect it to be Kyrienka's turn, but you never know.
I've had a small wager on Kyrienka, but those odds aren't generous for a rider who's targeting a breakaway which is, firstly highly likely to be too big, and secondly going to be packed with climbing talent and include some Columbians.
Well I didn't see yesterday's winner coming, even after the breakaway was established, but a great ride by Lampre's man nevertheless.
Stage 14 isn't easy to call either. With a peleton laden with climbers, there just aren't many stages left for them, and once again there will be many looking to get into the breakaway, and there is a chance it'll make it to the finish, but just a chance.
The race hinges on two factors, in the main; firstly the top contenders know that they have to distance Tom Dumoulin before the time trial on stage 17, otherwise he wins this Vuelta. So, sticking with that for the moment, we just may see some collaboration between teams with a common interest, and they might attack on the penultimate climb, which is the hardest, but then there's almost 40km to go to the final, and less difficult, climb, so even staying away, after putting in an effort, isn't certain. I think, with Tiralonga absent, Astana will play cautiously, stay together, and attack on the final climb of the day, and that wouldn't usually be sufficient to reel in a strong breakaway.
What might keep the breakaway in check is the fight for top 10, even 20, places in the overall. Teams and riders, who have put in the effort thus far, aren't just going to allow someone to leapfrog them in the standings and do nothing about it. If there's any rider in the breakaway who's well placed overall, then the chase might come from teams not interested in the podium, and then of course everyone wants a shot at winning a stage, and this final climb isn't the hardest, those will come over the next two days.
So it's a bit of a pin sticker, as far as the winner's concerned. Obviously, if Landa was permitted to join the breakaway, then he'd be seriously difficult to beat, but I doubt that'll happen this time. Even so he may still be involved in the finale, but Aru would be the man they want to see on the podium. Whether or not Aru will go full gas up this incline will very much depend upon how well Dumoulin is going. There are tougher days to come, and keeping something in reserve could be crucial.
Someone like Atapuma could find this stage to his liking, and he's climbing well enough to get in the mix. Sky will target the breakaway once again, and I'd expect it to be Kyrienka's turn, but you never know.
I've had a small wager on Kyrienka, but those odds aren't generous for a rider who's targeting a breakaway which is, firstly highly likely to be too big, and secondly going to be packed with climbing talent and include some Columbians.
I'm losing track, but today is perfect for the breakaway, and I see the bookmakers have fast guys as favs.; can't see that happening.
My silly logic considered that Astana would control the break, and make sure that Luis Leon was in it. I wasn't planning to tweet them but, as they say "wtf", why not? I've had a small punt, and if I can influence the race in our favour (bit pompous to think I can), then why not give it a go ... so I'll probably send a "tweet" before the stage.
There are numerous candidates for a breakaway, and I can't see Giant, nor Astana, providing their man's in the break, closing this down. If there's ever a stage made for the breakaway then this is it.
I've been wrong before .. but I've had a little punt on Luis Leon Sanchez.
As a footnote, I also thought Sky were certain to put someone in the break, but there are going to be 40+ riders trying to join the break. I've favoured Kyrienka, but it could always be one of the others. I'm also fairly sure Steve Cummings will want to be involved too.
My silly logic considered that Astana would control the break, and make sure that Luis Leon was in it. I wasn't planning to tweet them but, as they say "wtf", why not? I've had a small punt, and if I can influence the race in our favour (bit pompous to think I can), then why not give it a go ... so I'll probably send a "tweet" before the stage.
There are numerous candidates for a breakaway, and I can't see Giant, nor Astana, providing their man's in the break, closing this down. If there's ever a stage made for the breakaway then this is it.
I've been wrong before .. but I've had a little punt on Luis Leon Sanchez.
As a footnote, I also thought Sky were certain to put someone in the break, but there are going to be 40+ riders trying to join the break. I've favoured Kyrienka, but it could always be one of the others. I'm also fairly sure Steve Cummings will want to be involved too.
Stage 12:
After today's big shake up, the main players can have a relatively easy day on stage 12.
Just one cat 2 climb at around km 50 of 173. There are some other smaller climbs, but they are said to be minor affairs. Always wise to expect worse than is declared when in Spain. The riders were fortunate enough to miss most of the rain so far, but there's still a chance of wet weather in the region, not likely to make a huge difference with a lengthy flatish finale.
Dagenkolb, despite not being at his best, just failed to get the win last time, and Giant will be keen to make amends. Fortunately for them, this doesn't look like a stage where a breakaway could survive unless it was a really strong group and, with many riders in recovery mode, it's unlikely to be a big group getting away. This should end in a bunch sprint, slightly uphill, and Dagenkolb is the most likely winner. There may be some Each Way value elsewhere, Drucker is one who springs to mind, and Sparagli will try his hand again. Danny Van Poppel might get involved this time too, but it's guesswork as to who's in good condition after the big mountain stage.
good luck.
After today's big shake up, the main players can have a relatively easy day on stage 12.
Just one cat 2 climb at around km 50 of 173. There are some other smaller climbs, but they are said to be minor affairs. Always wise to expect worse than is declared when in Spain. The riders were fortunate enough to miss most of the rain so far, but there's still a chance of wet weather in the region, not likely to make a huge difference with a lengthy flatish finale.
Dagenkolb, despite not being at his best, just failed to get the win last time, and Giant will be keen to make amends. Fortunately for them, this doesn't look like a stage where a breakaway could survive unless it was a really strong group and, with many riders in recovery mode, it's unlikely to be a big group getting away. This should end in a bunch sprint, slightly uphill, and Dagenkolb is the most likely winner. There may be some Each Way value elsewhere, Drucker is one who springs to mind, and Sparagli will try his hand again. Danny Van Poppel might get involved this time too, but it's guesswork as to who's in good condition after the big mountain stage.
good luck.
this is a follow on post.
I think that Sky's Kyrienka is well capable of joining a breakaway and winning this stage, especially in the forecast wet conditions. It's also true that Henao is capable of doing something similar. Team instructions will determine where that's going.
AG2R's Blel Khadri suffered a bad accident early in the season and hasn't had an opportunity to prove his well being so far. Khadri prefers cooler conditions, and he's capable of going long on a big climbing stage. There's no current form to go on, but if he's in good fettle then he's certainly not a 200/1 chance for this.
If there's any certainty in this race, it's that Kenny Ellisonde will target a breakaway. Kenny's in good shape, and he climbs well, but he's a way short of the best, and his odds, generally, are not too tempting. However, if he gets in the right break, he does have a chance of bringing it home one of these days.
I think that Sky's Kyrienka is well capable of joining a breakaway and winning this stage, especially in the forecast wet conditions. It's also true that Henao is capable of doing something similar. Team instructions will determine where that's going.
AG2R's Blel Khadri suffered a bad accident early in the season and hasn't had an opportunity to prove his well being so far. Khadri prefers cooler conditions, and he's capable of going long on a big climbing stage. There's no current form to go on, but if he's in good fettle then he's certainly not a 200/1 chance for this.
If there's any certainty in this race, it's that Kenny Ellisonde will target a breakaway. Kenny's in good shape, and he climbs well, but he's a way short of the best, and his odds, generally, are not too tempting. However, if he gets in the right break, he does have a chance of bringing it home one of these days.
