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skinny
1 month ago
Straight Male, 77
0 miles · Brighton
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Stage 11 could change the whole perspective of this contest. This is regarded as the hardest day ever in a modern day grand tour. Not long in km's, but non stop climbing and descending, then to make matters worse, it's forecast to rain all day.
In spite of it being the stage it is, there is a strong consensus of opinion which says the strong breakaway might prevail, but only the strongest and the best climbers have a chance.
The steep climbs suit the Columbians, like Torres, Atapuma, and Duarte. The wet weather doesn't suit them though, and coming off some of these climbs in the wet could cause problems.
My main reason for posting early was that I noticed Mikel Landa on offer at 40/1 with Corals, and that's a huge price for the strongest climber in the peleton. He may not have shown any form thus far, in this contest, but he's way out of the G.C., and nobody will care if he joins the breakaway. If Landa gets into the breakaway then I very much doubt there's anyone to beat him. So it's really just a case of whether or not Astana will give him the go ahead.
In spite of it being the stage it is, there is a strong consensus of opinion which says the strong breakaway might prevail, but only the strongest and the best climbers have a chance.
The steep climbs suit the Columbians, like Torres, Atapuma, and Duarte. The wet weather doesn't suit them though, and coming off some of these climbs in the wet could cause problems.
My main reason for posting early was that I noticed Mikel Landa on offer at 40/1 with Corals, and that's a huge price for the strongest climber in the peleton. He may not have shown any form thus far, in this contest, but he's way out of the G.C., and nobody will care if he joins the breakaway. If Landa gets into the breakaway then I very much doubt there's anyone to beat him. So it's really just a case of whether or not Astana will give him the go ahead.
today's copy:
The first rest day, long overdue, and time to reflect upon what's already happened.
Firstly, stage 10, almost going to plan, but not quite. Too many riders in the break first of all, but why was Henao there? Sky had two strong riders in the break, Pucchio and Boswell, holding a sporting chance of getting a result, but with Henao sitting just 3 minutes down in the G.C. it just wasn't going to happen. It's not that the break isn't strong enough to stay out front, it's that the other riders, from Astana, BMC, Orica, Movistar, Tinkoff Saxo, and others, are just not going to help him to gain an advantage on their own G.C. contenders. That being the case we then find the other half of the break less than willing to give everyone else a free ride, so the breakaway is doomed unless Henao sits up.
I've puzzled as to find any logic in the move, but all I could come up with was that Navarro, from Cofidis, was just two minutes down on him, but that's a weak argument at this stage of the tour. In the end Henao suffered a mishap, after the catch was made, and lost over 10 minutes.
Tom Dumoulin leads by almost a minute, but he can't go through the high mountains, in the days ahead, and keep up with the pure climbers. He's a potential world champion time trialist, and he can expect to gain quite a bit of time in the ITT later on, but I doubt he'll be able to stay close enough to have a shot at the podium.
Aru is now the clear leader for Astana, and he's showing good form. In past tours, with less expected of him perhaps, Aru has always had at least one bad, or let's say a below par, day. He is very strong and tends to finish a tour well, but much may depend upon whether his own time trial holds up. He's also going to miss having Tiralongo there, softening up the opposition.
Movistar are still claiming to have two leaders, have Quintana riding strong, but not showing his real sparkle yet, although we haven't really got to the big climbs thus far, and I suspect he's been just hanging in there up until now.
Valverde is their other "leader", though I suspect the veteran's weaknesses, of which there aren't many, will become apparent over the next week. Valverde is less suited by the long hard climbs which best suit Quintana, and Froome. He does keep going though, and that's his strength.
Froome has played down his chances, but he seems to be very near his top level, and the longer and harder climbing days ahead suit him well. He's also the better time trialist among the climbers. If anyone wants to take time from Froome they'll have to ride away from him on the climbs.
Whether that will be possible remains to be seen.
Purito Rodriguez has never quite made it to the top step on a grand tour, and, as much as we love him, I think it's unlikely to get any better from here. The steep Spanish climbs suit him well, but overall he has continually come up short, and his recent form is not as good as it once was. Add to that his well publicised weakness in the time trial and you can see that it's going to be difficult for Purito to get on the podium.
Rafal Majka is riding well, and seems to have prepared well for this challenge. Majka has always been just below the level of the very best riders, but he is still young, and getting stronger all the time. So far we haven't seen a performance from him which will beat the best, but I suspect the best is yet to come, and I think a podium place certainly isn't out of the question.
Chaves has had a wonderful tour, and this young man is a real talent. Whether he can hold up for the remainder of the tour remains to be seen. He is a pure climber, I think it's his stamina which will be called to question. If he holds up, who knows, he's very close to the top step, and on a good day he's hard to beat.
Nicolas Roche has been riding tremendously well, as is often the case here at La Vuelta, and he's sitting 4th at the moment. I suspect that, when the battles in the high mountains commence, Roche will be ready to sacrifice himself for his captain, and that will put paid to his podium chances. I'd love to be wrong, and Sky have other men to call upon, but that's how I see it going.
Can anyone else possibly make the podium? Well there's a long way to go yet, and there are a number of good riders very close at hand.
Sammy Sanchez could refind the form which saw him on podiums in the past, and Danny Moreno is often close by. Realistically I think the only other rider, following Henao's ill fate yesterday, who can possibly make the podium, is Pozzovivo. He hasn't shown enough yet, but he just could be getting stronger as the race goes on, and he arrives fresher than most. I don't think he'll make it, but you never know.
The week ahead will reveal all.
The first rest day, long overdue, and time to reflect upon what's already happened.
Firstly, stage 10, almost going to plan, but not quite. Too many riders in the break first of all, but why was Henao there? Sky had two strong riders in the break, Pucchio and Boswell, holding a sporting chance of getting a result, but with Henao sitting just 3 minutes down in the G.C. it just wasn't going to happen. It's not that the break isn't strong enough to stay out front, it's that the other riders, from Astana, BMC, Orica, Movistar, Tinkoff Saxo, and others, are just not going to help him to gain an advantage on their own G.C. contenders. That being the case we then find the other half of the break less than willing to give everyone else a free ride, so the breakaway is doomed unless Henao sits up.
I've puzzled as to find any logic in the move, but all I could come up with was that Navarro, from Cofidis, was just two minutes down on him, but that's a weak argument at this stage of the tour. In the end Henao suffered a mishap, after the catch was made, and lost over 10 minutes.
Tom Dumoulin leads by almost a minute, but he can't go through the high mountains, in the days ahead, and keep up with the pure climbers. He's a potential world champion time trialist, and he can expect to gain quite a bit of time in the ITT later on, but I doubt he'll be able to stay close enough to have a shot at the podium.
Aru is now the clear leader for Astana, and he's showing good form. In past tours, with less expected of him perhaps, Aru has always had at least one bad, or let's say a below par, day. He is very strong and tends to finish a tour well, but much may depend upon whether his own time trial holds up. He's also going to miss having Tiralongo there, softening up the opposition.
Movistar are still claiming to have two leaders, have Quintana riding strong, but not showing his real sparkle yet, although we haven't really got to the big climbs thus far, and I suspect he's been just hanging in there up until now.
Valverde is their other "leader", though I suspect the veteran's weaknesses, of which there aren't many, will become apparent over the next week. Valverde is less suited by the long hard climbs which best suit Quintana, and Froome. He does keep going though, and that's his strength.
Froome has played down his chances, but he seems to be very near his top level, and the longer and harder climbing days ahead suit him well. He's also the better time trialist among the climbers. If anyone wants to take time from Froome they'll have to ride away from him on the climbs.
Whether that will be possible remains to be seen.
Purito Rodriguez has never quite made it to the top step on a grand tour, and, as much as we love him, I think it's unlikely to get any better from here. The steep Spanish climbs suit him well, but overall he has continually come up short, and his recent form is not as good as it once was. Add to that his well publicised weakness in the time trial and you can see that it's going to be difficult for Purito to get on the podium.
Rafal Majka is riding well, and seems to have prepared well for this challenge. Majka has always been just below the level of the very best riders, but he is still young, and getting stronger all the time. So far we haven't seen a performance from him which will beat the best, but I suspect the best is yet to come, and I think a podium place certainly isn't out of the question.
Chaves has had a wonderful tour, and this young man is a real talent. Whether he can hold up for the remainder of the tour remains to be seen. He is a pure climber, I think it's his stamina which will be called to question. If he holds up, who knows, he's very close to the top step, and on a good day he's hard to beat.
Nicolas Roche has been riding tremendously well, as is often the case here at La Vuelta, and he's sitting 4th at the moment. I suspect that, when the battles in the high mountains commence, Roche will be ready to sacrifice himself for his captain, and that will put paid to his podium chances. I'd love to be wrong, and Sky have other men to call upon, but that's how I see it going.
Can anyone else possibly make the podium? Well there's a long way to go yet, and there are a number of good riders very close at hand.
Sammy Sanchez could refind the form which saw him on podiums in the past, and Danny Moreno is often close by. Realistically I think the only other rider, following Henao's ill fate yesterday, who can possibly make the podium, is Pozzovivo. He hasn't shown enough yet, but he just could be getting stronger as the race goes on, and he arrives fresher than most. I don't think he'll make it, but you never know.
The week ahead will reveal all.
stage 10, and thank goodness it's a rest day tomorrow.
today's copy:
Well Pozzovivo didn't quite have the form for us yesterday, but what a spectacular performance from Tom Dumoulin, and a solid effort by Chris Froome too.
Today, the stage is perfect for a strong breakaway, and the G.C. men will hope a break goes early, and it ought to, and stays away. That being obvious means that there will be some 50 or so riders trying to get into said break, including some from the teams of the big players.
Giant are likely to want to control things in order to give Dagenkolb a chance, and he'd be hard to beat if arriving with the bunch. However, if it does come back together, then it's not certain Dagenkolb will have made the cut, and I'd favour Julien Simon, who just missed out two days ago when he was trapped behind a wall of riders in the sprint.
It's a short stage, but the first climb comes early, and will sort out who's in the break, then it rolls to a flat section, then the final climb, less than 25km from the finish. The climb, if we trust the description, isn't very hard, but the strong men and the climbers won't be waiting for the sprinters, and it's tough enough to make a difference. 7km up, then 10km down, then about 8km to the line.
It's very difficult to have a confident choice for this stage, particularly since we think a break might win. The break may last out and then contest the finish from a bunch, or someone might escape the bunch and take a solo victory. Then again, if some teams miss out on the break and decide to help keep it in check, then we might see the bigger bunch arrive together, but not before numerous attacks off the front. Even the final 2km are technical enough for a rider to try to escape for a solo win. Riders like Terpstra, though not a strong climber, Adam Hanson, and Ruben Plaza, and Sylvan Chavanel, are all likely to want to be involved. Hanson is immensely popular, and rightly so, but that means his odds are usually shorter than they ought to be.
I think that, whatever happens, Orica will want to get someone in the break, and I'm favouring Daryl Impey, but that's purely a guess. Gerrans could be well suited to this stage, but we are still waiting to see a return to form. Stephen Cummings has promised to try to get into another break, and I expect him to try really hard to get into this one, and he's certainly on my shortlist as a possible winner. I expect Movistar, Sky, and Tinkoff Saxo to try to get a rider in the break too, but too much guesswork as to who it might be.
Astana are missing two of their captains, in Nibali, and more importantly Tiralongo, who would have carried the workload through the difficult mountain stages. This has limited the opportunities for others to shine, but, with a rest day tomorrow, and Luis Leon Sanchez riding at his highest level for some time, I think the Spaniard might be allowed to go for this one. You'll have to think back quite some way to remember his best performances, and for a couple of seasons he hasn't shown much at all, but at his best he's a formidable competitor. If I was just to pick one for the stage, Luis Leon Sanchez would be the man.
Another exciting stage awaits, enjoy.
today's copy:
Well Pozzovivo didn't quite have the form for us yesterday, but what a spectacular performance from Tom Dumoulin, and a solid effort by Chris Froome too.
Today, the stage is perfect for a strong breakaway, and the G.C. men will hope a break goes early, and it ought to, and stays away. That being obvious means that there will be some 50 or so riders trying to get into said break, including some from the teams of the big players.
Giant are likely to want to control things in order to give Dagenkolb a chance, and he'd be hard to beat if arriving with the bunch. However, if it does come back together, then it's not certain Dagenkolb will have made the cut, and I'd favour Julien Simon, who just missed out two days ago when he was trapped behind a wall of riders in the sprint.
It's a short stage, but the first climb comes early, and will sort out who's in the break, then it rolls to a flat section, then the final climb, less than 25km from the finish. The climb, if we trust the description, isn't very hard, but the strong men and the climbers won't be waiting for the sprinters, and it's tough enough to make a difference. 7km up, then 10km down, then about 8km to the line.
It's very difficult to have a confident choice for this stage, particularly since we think a break might win. The break may last out and then contest the finish from a bunch, or someone might escape the bunch and take a solo victory. Then again, if some teams miss out on the break and decide to help keep it in check, then we might see the bigger bunch arrive together, but not before numerous attacks off the front. Even the final 2km are technical enough for a rider to try to escape for a solo win. Riders like Terpstra, though not a strong climber, Adam Hanson, and Ruben Plaza, and Sylvan Chavanel, are all likely to want to be involved. Hanson is immensely popular, and rightly so, but that means his odds are usually shorter than they ought to be.
I think that, whatever happens, Orica will want to get someone in the break, and I'm favouring Daryl Impey, but that's purely a guess. Gerrans could be well suited to this stage, but we are still waiting to see a return to form. Stephen Cummings has promised to try to get into another break, and I expect him to try really hard to get into this one, and he's certainly on my shortlist as a possible winner. I expect Movistar, Sky, and Tinkoff Saxo to try to get a rider in the break too, but too much guesswork as to who it might be.
Astana are missing two of their captains, in Nibali, and more importantly Tiralongo, who would have carried the workload through the difficult mountain stages. This has limited the opportunities for others to shine, but, with a rest day tomorrow, and Luis Leon Sanchez riding at his highest level for some time, I think the Spaniard might be allowed to go for this one. You'll have to think back quite some way to remember his best performances, and for a couple of seasons he hasn't shown much at all, but at his best he's a formidable competitor. If I was just to pick one for the stage, Luis Leon Sanchez would be the man.
Another exciting stage awaits, enjoy.
todays column:
Well more drama than we needed today, and several riders retired injured. Peter Sagan suffered minor injuries when one of the neutral service motorcycles knocked him off his bike, and at a time when he would have been considered the most likely winner of the bunch sprint which was to follow.
Stage 9 follows a now familiar pattern, with a fairly flat day leading to a stiff climb, taken twice on a final circuit, the final climb is to the finish line.
In Spain, when the road book says it's a tough climb, you can be sure it is a really tough climb. Just over 4km in length, (slightly less first time) but classed as a cat 1 climb. Sections reported to be 19% for 500 metres, and shorter ramps in excess of 25%. On the 9th day of racing in the heat, this will cause problems for a number of riders.
There is always a chance of a strong breakaway going all the way, as most of the big guns seem happy to watch each other. For breakaway candidates, there are countless riders, all capable climbers, who could fancy giving it a go. On the other hand, these stages offer opportunities best suited to the favourites such as Purito and Moreno, and Valverde too. Of course Chaves, riding as he is, cannot be discounted from trying his hand again, but Orica won't ride hard to bring the break back. Caja Rural has two in form punchy climbers, Concalvez and Bilbao, who have been getting involved in these finishes, and it would be folly to discount them from giving it a go yet again, and it only takes that bit of luck, to make a move while others watch each other, and the race can be won. Meintjes is another rider who's going well, and he's just waiting to grab a chance at a stage win.
This stage is perfect for Rodriguez, although he's yet to show his best form this season, and seemed to fade towards the end of the tour.
I think Pozzovivo is well suited to this finale and, if it's brought back together, he could win this one, and 25/1 with Paddy Power makes him a value bet.
Well more drama than we needed today, and several riders retired injured. Peter Sagan suffered minor injuries when one of the neutral service motorcycles knocked him off his bike, and at a time when he would have been considered the most likely winner of the bunch sprint which was to follow.
Stage 9 follows a now familiar pattern, with a fairly flat day leading to a stiff climb, taken twice on a final circuit, the final climb is to the finish line.
In Spain, when the road book says it's a tough climb, you can be sure it is a really tough climb. Just over 4km in length, (slightly less first time) but classed as a cat 1 climb. Sections reported to be 19% for 500 metres, and shorter ramps in excess of 25%. On the 9th day of racing in the heat, this will cause problems for a number of riders.
There is always a chance of a strong breakaway going all the way, as most of the big guns seem happy to watch each other. For breakaway candidates, there are countless riders, all capable climbers, who could fancy giving it a go. On the other hand, these stages offer opportunities best suited to the favourites such as Purito and Moreno, and Valverde too. Of course Chaves, riding as he is, cannot be discounted from trying his hand again, but Orica won't ride hard to bring the break back. Caja Rural has two in form punchy climbers, Concalvez and Bilbao, who have been getting involved in these finishes, and it would be folly to discount them from giving it a go yet again, and it only takes that bit of luck, to make a move while others watch each other, and the race can be won. Meintjes is another rider who's going well, and he's just waiting to grab a chance at a stage win.
This stage is perfect for Rodriguez, although he's yet to show his best form this season, and seemed to fade towards the end of the tour.
I think Pozzovivo is well suited to this finale and, if it's brought back together, he could win this one, and 25/1 with Paddy Power makes him a value bet.
I hope some of you picked up on Lindeman, who was, goodness knows why, the outsider in the break, and available at 25's to 50's on the exchanges for much of the final 60 kilometres.
Stage 8 is another day, and the G.C. riders only wish to stay safe today. With a nigh pan flat run in the sprinters will fancy this, but that's not the full story. The climb, after a mostly downhill stage, is taken twice on a circuit, but it's not an easy climb, and most sprinters won't hang in there when the pace is cranked up. It's not terribly long, but it's steep enough to make a selection. Giant will look to keep the break in check, unless they send someone up the road; the same remark applies to Orica, for whom Gerrans would be well suited to this stage.
Peter Sagan will be favourite, and rightly so, but he was at his limit two days ago, and he's also not the fastest on a flat sprint, so we're trusting him to get into a reduced bunch, and I think it will be a reduced bunch which fights out this finish.
For the breakaway, or a late break even, Sylvan Chavanel could go well; so could Luis Leon Sanchez, but I suspect he'll be kept in check by team duties. I like Julien Simon for this; he climbs well, he's in great condition, and he packs a fast sprint finish. He wouldn't beat Dagenkolb in a regular sprint, but there's a fair chance the sprinters won't be around after the climb.
good luck.
(explanation on Lindeman quote)
published during the stage:
Not at halfway yet, but the 5 man break has almost 10 minutes.
Lindeman is there once again, and he's much better suited to this test than his previous sortes. Last year he won the big mountain stage in Tour de L'Ain, beating Romain Bardet, Dan Martin, and Jean Christophe Peraud et al.
Stage 8 is another day, and the G.C. riders only wish to stay safe today. With a nigh pan flat run in the sprinters will fancy this, but that's not the full story. The climb, after a mostly downhill stage, is taken twice on a circuit, but it's not an easy climb, and most sprinters won't hang in there when the pace is cranked up. It's not terribly long, but it's steep enough to make a selection. Giant will look to keep the break in check, unless they send someone up the road; the same remark applies to Orica, for whom Gerrans would be well suited to this stage.
Peter Sagan will be favourite, and rightly so, but he was at his limit two days ago, and he's also not the fastest on a flat sprint, so we're trusting him to get into a reduced bunch, and I think it will be a reduced bunch which fights out this finish.
For the breakaway, or a late break even, Sylvan Chavanel could go well; so could Luis Leon Sanchez, but I suspect he'll be kept in check by team duties. I like Julien Simon for this; he climbs well, he's in great condition, and he packs a fast sprint finish. He wouldn't beat Dagenkolb in a regular sprint, but there's a fair chance the sprinters won't be around after the climb.
good luck.
(explanation on Lindeman quote)
published during the stage:
Not at halfway yet, but the 5 man break has almost 10 minutes.
Lindeman is there once again, and he's much better suited to this test than his previous sortes. Last year he won the big mountain stage in Tour de L'Ain, beating Romain Bardet, Dan Martin, and Jean Christophe Peraud et al.
Well done Chaves, once again; I have him noted as a possible stage winner, and keep overlooking him because I've doubted
these hills would be steep enough for him to make it stick.
Incidentally, I also have L.L. Sanchez listed as a stage winner, but
that's likely scuppered due to reduced numbers in the squad.
With Gautier in yesterday's break it was never going to be let off the leash, perhaps today will be different.
Traditionally the first mountain top finish (yes it is officially the
first real climbing of the race) is won by the G.C. men, and often by
Chris Froome when he looks to impose himself on a race. Thus far the
principals seem to prefer to monitor each other, and seem unwilling to
show their hand at present, or risk exposing any weaknesses. This is
where Astana would have been expected to test everyone, but with Nibali
and, perhaps more importantly, Tiralonga out of the race, they are
themselves in a vulnerable position too early in the contest.
I think the way is open for an in form climber to take advantage, either
by joining the right breakaway, or by making a move while the big guns
watch each other. The heat is likely to take it's toll today.
Todays final climb isn't a severe test, so a strong rider such as
Hanson, or Di Marchi, could prevail from a break, but most likely it
will be one of the many climbers who takes the win.
I like the look of Dombrowski for this, generally 66/1, and I particularly like Henao, also 66/1, and well capable of riding away on such a climb.
In a race packed with climbing talent there are too many possibilities
to mention, and tactics will come into play for sure. MTN Quebeka are
loaded with stage hunters, and Meintjes is well capable of challenging
here. Berhane is always likely to get into a breakaway, and he is
capable of getting a result from such a break.
Enjoy the day.
these hills would be steep enough for him to make it stick.
Incidentally, I also have L.L. Sanchez listed as a stage winner, but
that's likely scuppered due to reduced numbers in the squad.
With Gautier in yesterday's break it was never going to be let off the leash, perhaps today will be different.
Traditionally the first mountain top finish (yes it is officially the
first real climbing of the race) is won by the G.C. men, and often by
Chris Froome when he looks to impose himself on a race. Thus far the
principals seem to prefer to monitor each other, and seem unwilling to
show their hand at present, or risk exposing any weaknesses. This is
where Astana would have been expected to test everyone, but with Nibali
and, perhaps more importantly, Tiralonga out of the race, they are
themselves in a vulnerable position too early in the contest.
I think the way is open for an in form climber to take advantage, either
by joining the right breakaway, or by making a move while the big guns
watch each other. The heat is likely to take it's toll today.
Todays final climb isn't a severe test, so a strong rider such as
Hanson, or Di Marchi, could prevail from a break, but most likely it
will be one of the many climbers who takes the win.
I like the look of Dombrowski for this, generally 66/1, and I particularly like Henao, also 66/1, and well capable of riding away on such a climb.
In a race packed with climbing talent there are too many possibilities
to mention, and tactics will come into play for sure. MTN Quebeka are
loaded with stage hunters, and Meintjes is well capable of challenging
here. Berhane is always likely to get into a breakaway, and he is
capable of getting a result from such a break.
Enjoy the day.
Please excuse the betting references, as this copy is written specifically for the betting community, but neverthe less I trust it will be informative.
Well I missed Caleb Ewan, and he did it well, but I was unconvinced as to his condition. Otherwise we'd called the next four home, even though Rojas got out of position, so it's encouraging enough, even if I'm not banking today.
Stage 6 should pretty much suit the same riders as stage 2 and 4, but there is a possibility of a strong breakaway making it this time.
Tom Dumoulin managed to get a small gap on Chaves, and now the Giant rider is in the leaders jersey. That means that Giant will try to control the make up of the break, but that will be difficult. Dumoulin probably has a better chance of keeping the Jersey if a non threatening breakaway stays away. As the race takes shape it's likely that Cannondale will want to help bring it back for Dan Martin to have a go, and he's a serious contender on this finish, along with Danny Moreno of Katusha.
The main G.C. contenders, if it comes back together, are also going to get involved in the finish, with Valverde once again a worthy favourite, but 9/4 in a stage like this is no value; furthermore, with big mountain stages ahead, they are less likely to help bring it back so long as they see no threat to the overall.
I've had a little bet on Allesandro Di Marchi, 200/1 with Coral, and on Dombrowski, 150/1 with bet365, and if either get in the break they are among several riders with the ability to bring it home. Of course that comment applies to a number of riders, and we all have our personal favourites.
Well I missed Caleb Ewan, and he did it well, but I was unconvinced as to his condition. Otherwise we'd called the next four home, even though Rojas got out of position, so it's encouraging enough, even if I'm not banking today.
Stage 6 should pretty much suit the same riders as stage 2 and 4, but there is a possibility of a strong breakaway making it this time.
Tom Dumoulin managed to get a small gap on Chaves, and now the Giant rider is in the leaders jersey. That means that Giant will try to control the make up of the break, but that will be difficult. Dumoulin probably has a better chance of keeping the Jersey if a non threatening breakaway stays away. As the race takes shape it's likely that Cannondale will want to help bring it back for Dan Martin to have a go, and he's a serious contender on this finish, along with Danny Moreno of Katusha.
The main G.C. contenders, if it comes back together, are also going to get involved in the finish, with Valverde once again a worthy favourite, but 9/4 in a stage like this is no value; furthermore, with big mountain stages ahead, they are less likely to help bring it back so long as they see no threat to the overall.
I've had a little bet on Allesandro Di Marchi, 200/1 with Coral, and on Dombrowski, 150/1 with bet365, and if either get in the break they are among several riders with the ability to bring it home. Of course that comment applies to a number of riders, and we all have our personal favourites.
If Peter Sagan could have designed a finish best suited too his talents, it would probably closely resemble the finish of stage 5. The final 700m rise at around 4 or 5%. The earlier part of the stage, however, is too easy to thin the peleton, so barring mishaps everyone should arrive, at a very fast pace, in a huge bunch going under the Flamme Rouge. It gets a little bit more difficult to handle from there, which will only make the pace even more manic.
I suspect that lead out trains will be gone by the final 400 metres, and it will be pretty much every man for himself to fight for the win in an uphill bunch sprint.
Sagan starts as favourite this time, with Dagenkolb a 4/1 chance, and the form book points to these two as the most likely winners. Positioning will be of the utmost importance here, and Sagan is certainly the man who is a master in that department, but this isn't a two horse race. I think Bouhanni will still be recovering from his crashes, and the uphill finish, although he climbs well enough, will offset his superior speed. Jempey Drucker, 33/1 with William Hill, is in top form at the moment, and this finish suits him well too. There has been money and positive reports for the Caja Rural sprinter Carlos Barbero, still a best priced 33/1 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes. Kris Boekmans, 66/1 with bet365 and others, is another who can get involved in such a finish.
I think the favs will probably fight out this one, and I like Drucker to get in the mix but, if the road book is inaccurate and gradients are steeper, or if people get caught out of position and lose wheels, don't be surprised to see Valverde and Gerrans near the front at the line.
I've often overlooked Movistar's sprinter, Jose Joachin Rojas Gil, as he is often overshadowed by Valverde and co.
Rojas Gil has been around for a while, and at his best he has often featured in bunch sprint finishes in grand tours. He's never been the best at positioning himself, but this finish would suit him perfectly, and he is fast enough to compete with these boys if things drop right for him.
I suspect that lead out trains will be gone by the final 400 metres, and it will be pretty much every man for himself to fight for the win in an uphill bunch sprint.
Sagan starts as favourite this time, with Dagenkolb a 4/1 chance, and the form book points to these two as the most likely winners. Positioning will be of the utmost importance here, and Sagan is certainly the man who is a master in that department, but this isn't a two horse race. I think Bouhanni will still be recovering from his crashes, and the uphill finish, although he climbs well enough, will offset his superior speed. Jempey Drucker, 33/1 with William Hill, is in top form at the moment, and this finish suits him well too. There has been money and positive reports for the Caja Rural sprinter Carlos Barbero, still a best priced 33/1 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes. Kris Boekmans, 66/1 with bet365 and others, is another who can get involved in such a finish.
I think the favs will probably fight out this one, and I like Drucker to get in the mix but, if the road book is inaccurate and gradients are steeper, or if people get caught out of position and lose wheels, don't be surprised to see Valverde and Gerrans near the front at the line.
I've often overlooked Movistar's sprinter, Jose Joachin Rojas Gil, as he is often overshadowed by Valverde and co.
Rojas Gil has been around for a while, and at his best he has often featured in bunch sprint finishes in grand tours. He's never been the best at positioning himself, but this finish would suit him perfectly, and he is fast enough to compete with these boys if things drop right for him.
today's copy
Great ride by, and well deserved win for, Sagan and Tinkoff Saxo. Bouhanni rode well considering he has to keep scraping himself off the floor; Dagenkolb looked to be just a bit short of his best.
Different day on tuesday; bookmakers have Sagan as favorite, but that won't happen, way too steep a finale for him to keep up with the climbers, and I can't see him joining the breakaway, who just might just be permitted to go for it, but I kinda doubt it. Quite a long stage, around 209 km I think, and rolling countryside for much of it, then a flatish coastal run until the finale which kicks up at around 10-12%, (if the road book is accurate, it's notoriously not so in Spanish races) followed by false flat, slight dip, then kicks up again to the line. Suited to the same riders as was stage 2, but there are more riders out of contention now, so they might be given the freedom to attack early. I like Valverde again, but of course things need to drop right, and there are numerous climbers who could take the win. Dan Martin will once again fancy this stage, and so will the Katusha pair of Danny Moreno and Purito Rodriguez. Much will depend upon the make up of the breakaway, and then as to how it's controlled, but Orica will be working to control who gets away; they'll be less concerned about reeling them in, unless there's a threat to the jersey.
Great ride by, and well deserved win for, Sagan and Tinkoff Saxo. Bouhanni rode well considering he has to keep scraping himself off the floor; Dagenkolb looked to be just a bit short of his best.
Different day on tuesday; bookmakers have Sagan as favorite, but that won't happen, way too steep a finale for him to keep up with the climbers, and I can't see him joining the breakaway, who just might just be permitted to go for it, but I kinda doubt it. Quite a long stage, around 209 km I think, and rolling countryside for much of it, then a flatish coastal run until the finale which kicks up at around 10-12%, (if the road book is accurate, it's notoriously not so in Spanish races) followed by false flat, slight dip, then kicks up again to the line. Suited to the same riders as was stage 2, but there are more riders out of contention now, so they might be given the freedom to attack early. I like Valverde again, but of course things need to drop right, and there are numerous climbers who could take the win. Dan Martin will once again fancy this stage, and so will the Katusha pair of Danny Moreno and Purito Rodriguez. Much will depend upon the make up of the breakaway, and then as to how it's controlled, but Orica will be working to control who gets away; they'll be less concerned about reeling them in, unless there's a threat to the jersey.
Stage 3 is predicted to finish in a bunch sprint, but nothing's for sure in Spain.
today's copy:
Well deserved win for Orica on stage 2, always a popular team. That climb looked somewhat steeper, in parts, than I was led to believe. Movistar tried to work the old one two, with Quintana hoping to draw out the main protagonists and set them up for Valverde's punch, but no one took the bait. Good win for Chaves, Dan Martin too late on the scene yet again.
Tomorrow sees the first cat.1 climb, but it's a long way from the finish. The sprint teams ought to be able to close it down and fight out the finish. Bouhanni's the fastest man here, so I've had a little bit of the 11/4 with bet365.
Only fair to mention that Bouhanni was on the floor in stage 2, but he claims to be feeling fine. If he's not at 100% then John Dagenkolb is the next best sprinter here, and he does have a really good lead out team. Lets hope they all get through unscathed this time.
In reply to Sandy', there were three non finishers, including the Lampre and the IAM riders we saw on the floor. IAM later lost another sprinter in a subsequent crash. Then Vincenzo Nibali, himself a victim of the crash, was thrown off the race for holding on to his team car while being helped back to the peleton.
today's copy:
Well deserved win for Orica on stage 2, always a popular team. That climb looked somewhat steeper, in parts, than I was led to believe. Movistar tried to work the old one two, with Quintana hoping to draw out the main protagonists and set them up for Valverde's punch, but no one took the bait. Good win for Chaves, Dan Martin too late on the scene yet again.
Tomorrow sees the first cat.1 climb, but it's a long way from the finish. The sprint teams ought to be able to close it down and fight out the finish. Bouhanni's the fastest man here, so I've had a little bit of the 11/4 with bet365.
Only fair to mention that Bouhanni was on the floor in stage 2, but he claims to be feeling fine. If he's not at 100% then John Dagenkolb is the next best sprinter here, and he does have a really good lead out team. Lets hope they all get through unscathed this time.
In reply to Sandy', there were three non finishers, including the Lampre and the IAM riders we saw on the floor. IAM later lost another sprinter in a subsequent crash. Then Vincenzo Nibali, himself a victim of the crash, was thrown off the race for holding on to his team car while being helped back to the peleton.
Stage 2's contribution.
Stage 2 is a typically rolling day in Spain. The sprinters can't win, as the finish is up a 3+ km climb at just over 7%. All of the riders can climb this, but only a handful pack the punch to win it. I doubt that a breakaway will be allowed to stick at this early stage, so i suspect the main contenders will arrive together, and with Valverde starting as fav. for the stage win, and it suits him well, the G.C. guys won't be far away, so the sprinters won't be able to stay with them to the finish atop the climb. Chris Froome will be close at hand, but I doubt it's tough enough for him to get away. Valverde has the sprint finish, so does Dan Martin, and so does Simon Gerrans, although we can't be certain of his form. Martin and Gerrans are both priced at big odds with bet365, most books haven't opened at time of writing. I'm interested to see how Dombrowski fares on such a punchy climb, following a report that he rode it very fast on friday.
Stage 2 is a typically rolling day in Spain. The sprinters can't win, as the finish is up a 3+ km climb at just over 7%. All of the riders can climb this, but only a handful pack the punch to win it. I doubt that a breakaway will be allowed to stick at this early stage, so i suspect the main contenders will arrive together, and with Valverde starting as fav. for the stage win, and it suits him well, the G.C. guys won't be far away, so the sprinters won't be able to stay with them to the finish atop the climb. Chris Froome will be close at hand, but I doubt it's tough enough for him to get away. Valverde has the sprint finish, so does Dan Martin, and so does Simon Gerrans, although we can't be certain of his form. Martin and Gerrans are both priced at big odds with bet365, most books haven't opened at time of writing. I'm interested to see how Dombrowski fares on such a punchy climb, following a report that he rode it very fast on friday.
Just a copy of a little thing I wrote for the betting fraternity, not intended to encourage any of you to gamble, just some info.
The 2015 Vuelta kicks off Saturday, 22nd August, with a very short stage 1 Team Time Trial.
Be extra cautious with your bets, especially match bets, as this stage has been neutralised from an individual time point of view.
The course has been deemed to be dangerous, to some degree, and unsuited to the particular discipline. So the stage will go ahead, but times will only count in the team classification, meaning that any riders "taking it easy" will start on Sunday with the same time as everyone else.
It seems that the racing surface is quite varied, but in some parts it's sand, and who could guess who will be able to get the most from their bikes on such a course. This could mean huge surprises; it could mean some riders, with nothing to gain or lose, will simply be playing safe. Equally we might see some squads finding themselves going particularly and unexpectedly well. Such a surface has never been raced on in the modern pro era, so it's guesswork. For my own part I'd expect it may suit a team loaded with the classics men who can time trial as well. We'll see, I'd consider myself to be reckless if I tried to point you towards a winner.
I expect that it will remain entertaining, and as usual I wish you luck.
The 2015 Vuelta kicks off Saturday, 22nd August, with a very short stage 1 Team Time Trial.
Be extra cautious with your bets, especially match bets, as this stage has been neutralised from an individual time point of view.
The course has been deemed to be dangerous, to some degree, and unsuited to the particular discipline. So the stage will go ahead, but times will only count in the team classification, meaning that any riders "taking it easy" will start on Sunday with the same time as everyone else.
It seems that the racing surface is quite varied, but in some parts it's sand, and who could guess who will be able to get the most from their bikes on such a course. This could mean huge surprises; it could mean some riders, with nothing to gain or lose, will simply be playing safe. Equally we might see some squads finding themselves going particularly and unexpectedly well. Such a surface has never been raced on in the modern pro era, so it's guesswork. For my own part I'd expect it may suit a team loaded with the classics men who can time trial as well. We'll see, I'd consider myself to be reckless if I tried to point you towards a winner.
I expect that it will remain entertaining, and as usual I wish you luck.
I'm not sure I can advise you, except to point out the obvious, that there will always be, and moreso in my case, younger and better looking people around.
So ditto what Toots said, and once your cofidence is high you'll be in a better place. Perhaps you'll be able to talk about the particular young lady, even meet her, with your fella. It sounds like you feel you are in competition with her at the moment, and that's probably not the case.
I've had experience of being a "cheat", (long time ago and not proud of it) and that's not what we're talking about here, so unless revealing how you found out it is likely to cause a problem, then maybe you should talk about his fling.
I've also had experience of being involved with much younger lovers, and although they are lovely to look upon, and for many guys the ego boost is important, they rarely replace a loving relationship. Nevertheless, don't think you're being told that you shouldn't worry, and it's just a fling, because the age gap won't mean it can't be serious. My third wife is 24 years younger than myself.
Beautiful people are just people, with the same desires and vulnerabilities as the rest of us.
If your guy was her instructor, or mentor, in her chosen sport, then it's highly likely that she is the one in awe. It's a common scenario for the pupil, or junior, to be overly impressed by the older person with the additional and admired skillset. When I rode horses for a living it was often the case that some of the young girls would be admirers, simply because I was at a standard which they aspired to and admired. It's almost the same as a schoolgirl having a crush on the teacher, in that it has no real foundation beyond admiration. Of course, as they become consenting adults, it's easy for it to have moved a bit further.
I wish you well.
So ditto what Toots said, and once your cofidence is high you'll be in a better place. Perhaps you'll be able to talk about the particular young lady, even meet her, with your fella. It sounds like you feel you are in competition with her at the moment, and that's probably not the case.
I've had experience of being a "cheat", (long time ago and not proud of it) and that's not what we're talking about here, so unless revealing how you found out it is likely to cause a problem, then maybe you should talk about his fling.
I've also had experience of being involved with much younger lovers, and although they are lovely to look upon, and for many guys the ego boost is important, they rarely replace a loving relationship. Nevertheless, don't think you're being told that you shouldn't worry, and it's just a fling, because the age gap won't mean it can't be serious. My third wife is 24 years younger than myself.
Beautiful people are just people, with the same desires and vulnerabilities as the rest of us.
If your guy was her instructor, or mentor, in her chosen sport, then it's highly likely that she is the one in awe. It's a common scenario for the pupil, or junior, to be overly impressed by the older person with the additional and admired skillset. When I rode horses for a living it was often the case that some of the young girls would be admirers, simply because I was at a standard which they aspired to and admired. It's almost the same as a schoolgirl having a crush on the teacher, in that it has no real foundation beyond admiration. Of course, as they become consenting adults, it's easy for it to have moved a bit further.
I wish you well.
I have no idea how many people read the "stories", and to be honest I forget it actually exists until a post such as your own pops up. However, so long as people like to write such stuff, and others like to read same, then there's plenty of room for it. So long as there's nothing written which will offend consenting adults, nor incite the wish to cause such offence, then it's all welcomed.
Your survey was missing a relevant answer though: No ... no need to include pictures ... just No.
Your survey was missing a relevant answer though: No ... no need to include pictures ... just No.
You're almost certainly not, and though I adore boobs and nipples myself, I wouldn't say it's a fetish; therein lies your problem insofar as sifting out those who just want some action. However there are loads of girls who would welcome some nipple attention, giving or receiving, and I think much the same goes for guys, although I can't say that anyone playing with my own nipples, and they're very welcome to knock themselves out, has ever done much for me, but if it pleases a playmate to twiddle and tweak then that's just fine. A dedicated chatroom might uncover, (no pun intended), some likeminded individuals in your own locality.
Just some basic starting out advice for new members. It goes in "about sex" because it relates to wanting to meet.
Lots of threads touching on this topic over the years, so just some basics.
First of all make sure your profile details, and any photographs, are accurate. There is no need to write anything you don't wish to, but any simple information will be welcomed by other members wishing to meet.
If you state that you are a couple, this will be viewed with some scepticism by experienced members, so get into the chatroom and put your cam on (no nudity required) and just say hi. Of course the best way to get known is to attend a "social" near to you. These are advertised in the "lets meet up" forum.
Lots of threads touching on this topic over the years, so just some basics.
First of all make sure your profile details, and any photographs, are accurate. There is no need to write anything you don't wish to, but any simple information will be welcomed by other members wishing to meet.
If you state that you are a couple, this will be viewed with some scepticism by experienced members, so get into the chatroom and put your cam on (no nudity required) and just say hi. Of course the best way to get known is to attend a "social" near to you. These are advertised in the "lets meet up" forum.
Not a new topic, I know; I was just going to bump the one I wrote a few years back, but couldn't find it.
First of all, get a sim card which is just for your "swinging" friends, you can swop real numbers later, with those who become real friends.
It's worthwhile confiding in someone who you can share certain info with. They don't have to know what you're up to, just tell them you're going on a first date. "Phone a friend", it's what many call girls do, and it's just an extra to help keep them safe.
Always arrange to meet in a public place, and don't be shy about asking a friend to tag along. If your meet is genuine then they won't object to you considering your safety, nor will they feel they need to be anonymous.
If you are going to an address or a hotel room, check it out, and let someone know where you're going. Don't ever be diverted to a different location from that which you had first arranged. Apologies for the dramatics, but if he said I'm in room 22, but meets you in the bar and then wants to take you to room 32 ?? alarm bells should be going off.
Never get into a car with someone you don't know without first, at least, sharing the car details with a friend.
There are people who just want to identify you, and to find out where you live, so be cautious when handing out information. From my own experiences, these people are usually just time wasters, and I didn't really worry about who knew where I lived, but better to be safe.
I'm sure I've missed something out, but any steps taken to ensure a safe and relaxed meet is worthwhile.
First of all, get a sim card which is just for your "swinging" friends, you can swop real numbers later, with those who become real friends.
It's worthwhile confiding in someone who you can share certain info with. They don't have to know what you're up to, just tell them you're going on a first date. "Phone a friend", it's what many call girls do, and it's just an extra to help keep them safe.
Always arrange to meet in a public place, and don't be shy about asking a friend to tag along. If your meet is genuine then they won't object to you considering your safety, nor will they feel they need to be anonymous.
If you are going to an address or a hotel room, check it out, and let someone know where you're going. Don't ever be diverted to a different location from that which you had first arranged. Apologies for the dramatics, but if he said I'm in room 22, but meets you in the bar and then wants to take you to room 32 ?? alarm bells should be going off.
Never get into a car with someone you don't know without first, at least, sharing the car details with a friend.
There are people who just want to identify you, and to find out where you live, so be cautious when handing out information. From my own experiences, these people are usually just time wasters, and I didn't really worry about who knew where I lived, but better to be safe.
I'm sure I've missed something out, but any steps taken to ensure a safe and relaxed meet is worthwhile.
